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Week 1 · 2026 season

The biggest games of the week, predicted.

Free, every week, no account. The matchups everyone is watching and betting, with our number set against the market's. The remaining 31 predictions open with your email.

Updated 2026-09-11 · 51 games on the board this week

Marquee games

Mid-American vs Big Ten Gap 13.8

Ball State at Ohio State

Pac-12 vs Big 12 Gap 13

Oregon State at Houston

American Athletic vs ACC Gap 12.6

Mid-American vs Big Ten Gap 11.3

Western Michigan at Michigan

Full slate

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Gap vs market	Matchup — every one links to its breakdown	Our model	Market	Model side
13.8	Ball State at Ohio State Mid-American vs Big Ten	Ohio State -36.70	Ohio State -50.5	Ball State +50.5
13	Oregon State at Houston Pac-12 vs Big 12	Houston -7.97	Houston -21	Oregon State +21
12.6	Tulane at Duke American Athletic vs ACC	Duke -20.07	Duke -7.5	Duke -7.5
11.3	Western Michigan at Michigan Mid-American vs Big Ten	Michigan -16.18	Michigan -27.5	Western Michigan +27.5
10.8	San José State at USC Mountain West Conference vs Big Ten Conference	USC -27.73	USC -38.5	San José State +38.5
10.5	Texas State at Texas Sun Belt vs SEC	Texas -18.98	Texas -29.5	Texas State +29.5
10.2	Wisconsin at Notre Dame Big Ten vs FBS Independents	Notre Dame -31.21	Notre Dame -21	Notre Dame -21
9.9	East Carolina at Alabama American Athletic vs SEC	Alabama -17.61	Alabama -27.5	East Carolina +27.5
8.4	New Mexico State at Florida State Conference USA vs ACC	Florida State -23.14	Florida State -31.5	New Mexico State +31.5
8.3	UCLA at California Big Ten vs ACC	California -5.82	UCLA -2.5	California +2.5
8	Florida Atlantic at Florida American Athletic vs SEC	Florida -18.53	Florida -26.5	Florida Atlantic +26.5
7.9	Miami at Stanford ACC vs ACC	Miami -16.63	Miami -24.5	Stanford +24.5
7.7	UTEP at Oklahoma Conference USA vs SEC	Oklahoma -32.83	Oklahoma -40.5	UTEP +40.5
5.4	Washington State at Washington Pac-12 vs Big Ten	Washington -19.07	Washington -24.5	Washington State +24.5
4	SMU at Florida State ACC vs ACC	Florida State -1.48	SMU -2.5	Florida State +2.5
3.2	Clemson at LSU ACC vs SEC	LSU -6.80	LSU -10	Clemson +10
2.6	Boise State at Oregon Mountain West vs Big Ten	Oregon -27.09	Oregon -24.5	Oregon -24.5
1.6	Louisville at Ole Miss ACC vs SEC	Ole Miss -4.95	Ole Miss -6.5	Louisville +6.5
0.9	Fresno State at USC Mountain West vs Big Ten	USC -22.36	USC -21.5	USC -21.5
0.6	Baylor at Auburn Big 12 vs SEC	Auburn -8.10	Auburn -7.5	Auburn -7.5

Showing all 20 free games. Gap is our model's spread minus the market's — bigger gaps are bigger disagreements.

31 more games this week

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Game breakdowns

One article per featured game: the line, the disagreement, and the weather.

Ball State at Ohio State Oregon State at Houston Tulane at Duke Western Michigan at Michigan San José State at USC Texas State at Texas Wisconsin at Notre Dame East Carolina at Alabama New Mexico State at Florida State UCLA at California Florida Atlantic at Florida Miami at Stanford UTEP at Oklahoma Washington State at Washington SMU at Florida State Clemson at LSU Boise State at Oregon Louisville at Ole Miss Fresno State at USC Baylor at Auburn

Everything above is the model. The picks are the filter.

The predictions on this page are free. Our pick engine keeps only the games where the model has historically been sharpest — most of the board is passed on. Subscribers get that filtered subset with the size we bet on each one, graded in public.

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What a pick looks like 2025 · Wk 12

Texas at Georgia

Georgia −6

1.75u

suggested

3.50u

full

+3.18u WIN

Backdoor Cover

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