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Predictions / Week 1, 2026 / Washington State at Washington

Washington vs Washington State Prediction: Will Washington Cover -24.5?

Backdoor Cover’s model projects Washington -19.07 for Washington State at Washington, 5.4 points off the market’s Washington -24.5, and gives Washington a 97% win probability.

Week1
DateSun, Sep 6
Kickoff4:00 PM
VenueHusky Stadium, Seattle, WA
TVNBC

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My model
Washington -19.07
Washington wins 96.7% of simulations
5.4
points apart
The market
Washington -24.5
the latest available line

What this tells us

My model is less bullish on Washington than the market. It projects a decisive win but stops well short of the margin the market is pricing in. That divergence between two reads of the same game is what my system is built to flag.

Model pick
Washington State +24.5

The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.

Weather at kickoff

71°F
temperature
5 mph
wind
0%
precipitation

No significant weather expected.

How the number is built

The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.

My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.

Track RecordAll Week 1 breakdowns

Common questions

Who does the model project to win Washington vs Washington State?

Backdoor Cover’s model projects Washington to win, with a 97% win probability.

What is the model’s predicted spread for Washington State at Washington?

The model projects Washington -19.07 and the market has Washington -24.5, a gap of 5.4 points.

What side does the model favor against the spread?

Washington State +24.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.

Recent meetings

2026 Washington 24, Washington State 10 Washington won
2025 Washington State 24, Washington 59 Washington won
2024 Washington 19, Washington State 24 Washington State won
2023 Washington 24, Washington State 21 Washington won
2022 Washington State 33, Washington 51 Washington won
2021 Washington 13, Washington State 40 Washington State won
2019 Washington 31, Washington State 13 Washington won
2018 Washington State 15, Washington 28 Washington won
2017 Washington 41, Washington State 14 Washington won
2016 Washington State 17, Washington 45 Washington won

How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.

Backdoor Cover Picks

Is Washington State at Washington one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.

My track record is on the Track Record page.

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Other Week 1 breakdowns

Ball State at Ohio StateModel has Ohio State by 36.7, market by 50.5 Oregon State at HoustonModel has Houston by 8, market by 21 Tulane at DukeModel has Duke by 20.1, market by 7.5

Season predictions: Washington State and Washington.

Published Sep 4, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 11, 2026.