College football predictions for every game. Picks for the ones worth betting.
Predictions for every FBS game are free. The pattern-filtered subset — the games we actually bet — posts before kickoff and is graded in public.
Get a free pick every week
The receipts
Two seasons, same axes, same scale. A finished season on the left, this one as it happens on the right.
How it works
The base model predicts every game
Every FBS game gets a predicted score and a predicted spread before any pick is chosen — 400 games across the weeks we posted in 2025.
The model has a real edge, but no model is right every week. Betting the whole board means sitting through a lot of coin flips.
The pick engine keeps only where the model overperforms
Our pick engine sits on top of the model and identifies the specific situations where it overperforms its own average: how far its number sits from the market, who is favored, whether the edge is on the home side, and what kind of team is being asked to cover.
Across the weeks we posted it kept just 74 games. Most of the board is passed on.
What survives gets posted before kickoff
Every surviving pick goes up with its matchup, its number, and two sizes — the size we bet and a lower-risk size for newer bettors. It is graded once the game finishes and stays in the ledger either way: 53–21, 71.6%.
Why I built this
I used to buy picks for various college football experts and got tired of paying for guesses and bad results. So I built my own model last season and started betting it in October. Now I want to share it with you.
The record starts at Week 8 because that's when the model started. There's nothing before it.
I still bet every pick on this site. The sizes you see are the sizes I use.
What you get every week
Every spread and underdog play
Posted about an hour before each game kicks off, with both unit sizes and the number we took.
Predictions for all 138 teams
Predicted score and spread on every FBS game, searchable and sortable, updated through the week.
Season predictions
Win totals with over/under probabilities, conference title odds, and a predicted 12-team playoff field.
The full graded ledger
Every pick since Week 8 of 2025, win or lose, with running units. Public, not members-only.
This Week's Predictions
Our model vs. the market on this week's marquee games — biggest disagreements first.
LSU @ Ole MissModel has LSU by 18.7, market by 3 Houston @ Texas TechModel has Texas Tech by 19.6, market by 7.5 West Virginia @ VirginiaModel has Virginia by 22.6, market by 10.5 Purdue @ UCLAModel has UCLA by 26.1, market by 14 Kentucky @ Texas A&MModel has Texas A&M by 26.8, market by 16.5Pricing
Ride a single week or take the season. Both get the same picks at the same time.
Weekly pass
If your first paid week is a losing week, your next week is on us. Cancel any time.
Season pass
Access through January 2027. No auto-renew.
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Questions people ask before buying
Is this betting advice?
No. It is a model's output and a record of what I bet with my own money, published for information and entertainment. You are responsible for your own bets.
How do I get the picks?
Each pick appears on your picks page about an hour before that game kicks off, any day of the week there are games. You get an email the moment one posts.
What happens in a week with no picks?
Nothing gets posted and nothing gets bet. The filter passes on most games by design; forcing plays into a thin week is how records get ruined. Weekly subscribers can cancel before the next charge.
What is a unit?
Your own bet size. Most bettors set one unit at 1% of the money they have set aside for the season, so a $1,000 budget makes one unit $10. Every pick shows two sizes: the full size I bet, and a smaller suggested size.
What is the losing-week guarantee?
If your first full paid week finishes at a net loss, your next week is on us — we credit it automatically. It applies once, to your first paid week. No claim to file.
Can I cancel?
Yes, from your account page, effective at the end of the current week. The season pass does not renew at all.
Picks post about an hour before kickoff.
Any day there is a game, at the sizes I bet, graded in public.
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Backdoor CoverFor informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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