Week 9 Projections2026 model: ATS 260–231–9 (53.0%) · Totals 178–165 (51.9%) · Straight up 360–140 (72.0%) · graded at DraftKings’ close

College football predictions for every FBS game

Model-projected spreads and totals for every FBS game, updated every Wednesday.

It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.

You’re getting the projections every Wednesday.

Backdoor Cover Picks are the games I bet each week.

Get Backdoor Cover Picks

99¢ first week, then $9.99/wk. Or $99 for the season, through April 2027.

Your picks are on the Picks page.

New picks post Saturday morning, and you get an email when they’re up.

Picks

Week 9

See all 56 games

Final	Matchup	Proj Line	Closing Line	Proj Total	Closing Total	Model Picks
Tuesday, Oct 27
35–21Final	Delaware Western Kentucky 7:00 PM CBSSN	Western Kentucky −1.7	Western Kentucky −2.5	55.8	55.5	Delaware +2.5Over 55.5
3–24Final	Sam Houston Missouri State 8:00 PM ESPN2	Missouri State −7.4	Missouri State −5.5	55.0	51.5	Missouri State −5.5Over 51.5
Wednesday, Oct 28
44–28Final	Kennesaw State Middle Tennessee 7:00 PM CBSSN	Kennesaw State −5.5	Kennesaw State −1.5	54.6	49.5	Kennesaw State −1.5Over 49.5
24–0Final	Jacksonville State New Mexico State 8:00 PM ESPN2	Jacksonville State −3.7	Jacksonville State −3	57.4	50.5	Jacksonville State −3.0Over 50.5
Thursday, Oct 29
41–48Final	Florida Atlantic North Texas 7:30 PM ESPN	North Texas −19.8	North Texas −15.5	67.0	78.5	North Texas −15.5Under 78.5
24–21Final	Troy James Madison 7:30 PM ESPN2	James Madison −19.2	James Madison −17.5	56.3	52.5	Troy +17.5Over 52.5
Friday, Oct 30
38–31Final	Tulane Charlotte 7:00 PM ESPN2	Tulane −12.4	Tulane −8.5	50.5	47.5	Tulane −8.5Over 47.5
41–9Final	Baylor UCF 7:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	UCF −7.6	Baylor −2.5	46.9	49.5	UCF +2.5Under 49.5

Game	Proj spread	Proj total	Model picksat final line
Tuesday, Oct 27
DEL WKU Final 35–21	WKU −1.7	55.8	DEL +2.5O 55.5
SHSU MOST Final 3–24	MOST −7.4	55.0	MOST −5.5O 51.5
Wednesday, Oct 28
KENN MTSU Final 44–28	KENN −5.5	54.6	KENN −1.5O 49.5
JXST NMSU Final 24–0	JXST −3.7	57.4	JXST −3.0O 50.5
Thursday, Oct 29
FAU UNT Final 41–48	UNT −19.8	67.0	UNT −15.5U 78.5
TROY JMU Final 24–21	JMU −19.2	56.3	TROY +17.5O 52.5
Friday, Oct 30
TULN CLT Final 38–31	TULN −12.4	50.5	TULN −8.5O 47.5
BAY UCF Final 41–9 Breakdown	UCF −7.6	46.9	UCF +2.5U 49.5

See all 56 gamesEvery game is on the predictions page.

Marquee matchups

These were the biggest games of Week 9. Here’s how the model did.

Final Sat, Oct 31

Notre Dame35

Navy13

My line: Notre Dame −26.8
Line: Notre Dame −30.5
My total: 54.0
Total: 55.5
Win chance: Notre Dame 95%
My side: Navy +30.5 Covered

Read the breakdown of Notre Dame at Navy

Final Sat, Oct 31

Wisconsin0

Iowa30

My line: Iowa −2.4
Line: Iowa −2.5
My total: 44.0
Total: 36.0
Win chance: Iowa 56%
My side: Wisconsin +2.5 Missed

Read the breakdown of Wisconsin at Iowa

Final Sat, Oct 31

Florida8

Georgia27

My line: Georgia −8.3
Line: Georgia −11.5
My total: 55.2
Total: 56.5
Win chance: Georgia 70%
My side: Florida +11.5 Missed

Read the breakdown of Florida at Georgia

Final Sat, Oct 31

Miami38

North Carolina35

My line: Miami −15.9
Line: Miami −14.0
My total: 52.3
Total: 53.5
Win chance: Miami 84%
My side: Miami −13.5 Missed

Read the breakdown of Miami at North Carolina

Final Sat, Oct 31

Ohio State18

USC30

My line: Ohio State −14.1
Line: Ohio State −6.5
My total: 58.0
Total: 50.5
Win chance: Ohio State 81%
My side: Ohio State −6.5 Missed

Read the breakdown of Ohio State at USC

Final Sat, Oct 31

Texas State45

Boise State46

My line: Boise State −5.5
Line: Boise State −10.0
My total: 65.9
Total: 63.5
Win chance: Boise State 64%
My side: Texas State +10.0 Covered

Playoff odds

My model’s odds for each team to make the 12-team field.

Team and projected recordChance to make the 12-team field

Ohio State 10-2

94%22% title

Miami 11-1

94%12% title

Indiana 10-2

92%14% title

Notre Dame 10-2

90%20% title

Utah 11-1

79%6% title

UCLA 10-2

74%1% title

What moved since Oct 21: Utah up 26 points to 79%, UCLA up 22 points to 74%, Iowa down 35 points to 7% and Texas Tech down 34 points to 13% to make the field.

Teams and conferences

Projected record, win total and playoff odds for every FBS team.

Conferences: ACC · Big Ten · Big 12 · SEC · American · Conference USA · MAC · Mountain West · Pac-12 · Sun Belt

Teams: Alabama · Georgia · Ohio State · Michigan · Texas · Notre Dame · USC · Penn State · Oregon · LSU · Florida · Tennessee · Auburn · Oklahoma · Miami · Clemson · Florida State · Wisconsin · All 138 teams

Backdoor Cover Picks

Most weeks I bet a handful of the games on the board. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.

My track record is on the Track Record page.

Get Backdoor Cover Picks

99¢ first week, then $9.99/wk. Or $99 for the season, through April 2027.

Questions

What is Backdoor Cover?

A college football model that projects the spread, total and win probability for every FBS game, plus playoff and conference projections.

How is the model graded?

Every game is graded at DraftKings' closing line, the last number before kickoff, not the line when the pick went up. Line moves after the pick count against the record as well as for it.

When do the projections come out?

Every Wednesday. The email goes out and the predictions page updates the same day.

How good is the model?

Against the spread it's 260-231-9 on every game this season (53.0%). Straight up it's 360-140 (72.0%). On totals it's 178-165 (51.9%); totals started in Week 4. My track record is on the Track Record page.

What is Backdoor Cover Picks?

The games I bet each week, each with a recommended unit size. They post Saturday morning, or about an hour before kickoff for games that aren't on Saturday. 99¢ the first week, then $9.99/wk, or $99 for the season.

Is this betting advice?

No. It's a model's output, published for information and entertainment. You're responsible for your own bets.