Skip to content

Track Record

The model on every game, and every pick I bet. Football and basketball are graded and counted separately. Win or loss, nothing taken out.

The model, every FBS game
Graded at DraftKings’ closing line
260–231–9 53.0% against the spread
Totals 178–165 51.9%Straight up 360–140 72.0%500 games
Every game it projects is graded at DraftKings’ closing line, not the line when the pick went up. Totals started in Week 4.
Backdoor Cover Picks, every bet
— —
— picksWin rate —ROI —
Each posted before kickoff. Verified on Juice Reel, priced as taken.
I set up Juice Reel after my first graded pick, so its log doesn’t include San José State +38.5 at USC (Week 1, a win). That pick is still counted here.

Week by week, at a glance

The model, against the spread by week
57%Wk 151%Wk 252%Wk 353%Wk 451%Wk 555%Wk 654%Wk 752%Wk 852%Wk 952.4%
My picks, net units by week
Loading…
Units won or lost each week, at the price taken.

Week by week

The modelMy picks
WeekAgainst the spreadTotalsStraight upRecordMy picksNet
Week 928–26–2 51.9%22–34 39.3%43–13 76.8%——
Week 829–27 51.8%26–30 46.4%32–24 57.1%——
Week 731–26–2 54.4%33–26 55.9%38–21 64.4%——
Week 632–26 55.2%28–30 48.3%39–19 67.2%——
Week 528–27–1 50.9%34–22 60.7%42–14 75.0%——
Week 430–27–1 52.6%35–23 60.3%43–15 74.1%——
Week 329–27–1 51.8%—46–11 80.7%——
Week 225–24 51.0%—34–15 69.4%——
Week 128–21–2 57.1%—43–8 84.3%——
Season260–231–9 53.0%178–165 51.9%360–140 72.0%——

Every game is graded at DraftKings’ closing line. A push is the third number. The model’s totals and straight-up records are in the box at the top.

Every pick I’ve bet

—

Scroll the table sideways to see the units, result and net.

Loading the ledger…

How these numbers are kept

Picks are timestamped when posted and graded against the final score once the game finishes. Units are the recommended size of each pick, and each row carries the price I actually took. Spreads are at −110 unless noted, and moneylines are at the number shown when the pick went up.

One unit size per pick

Each pick has a recommended unit size, and the net is graded at that size. A unit is your own bet size. Most people set one unit at about 1% of what they’ve put aside for the season. New to betting? Bet less than the size shown.

Backdoor Cover Picks

Picks post Saturday morning, or about an hour before kickoff for games that aren’t on Saturday.

Get Backdoor Cover Picks
99¢ first week, then $9.99/wk. Or $99 for the season, through April 2027.