Texas vs Texas State Prediction: Will Texas Cover -29.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas -18.98 for Texas State at Texas, 10.5 points off the market’s Texas -29.5, and gives Texas a 97% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Texas than the market. My model projects Texas to win decisively, but the market is pricing in a substantially larger margin. That divergence between two reads of the same game is what my system is built to flag.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Texas vs Texas State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas to win, with a 97% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Texas State at Texas?
The model projects Texas -18.98 and the market has Texas -29.5, a gap of 10.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Texas State +29.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Texas State at Texas one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Texas State and Texas.
Published Sep 4, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 11, 2026.