Ohio State vs Ball State Prediction: Will Ohio State Cover -50.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State -36.70 for Ball State at Ohio State, 13.8 points off the market’s Ohio State -50.5, and gives Ohio State a 100% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Ohio State than the market. It projects a decisive win but stops well short of the margin the market is pricing in. That divergence between two reads of the same game is what my system is built to flag.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Ohio State vs Ball State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State to win, with a 100% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Ball State at Ohio State?
The model projects Ohio State -36.70 and the market has Ohio State -50.5, a gap of 13.8 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Ball State +50.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Ball State at Ohio State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Ball State and Ohio State.
Published Sep 10, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 11, 2026.