Which 12 teams make the 2026 College Football Playoff?

The model's projected 12-team field (by seed): 1 Georgia, 2 Ohio State, 3 Oklahoma, 4 LSU, 5 Texas A&M, 6 Texas, 7 Notre Dame, 8 Oregon, 9 Penn State, 10 Texas Tech, 11 Miami, 12 New Mexico.

Which teams just missed the 2026 Playoff?

The first four out of the model's projected field: Tennessee, Indiana, Alabama, BYU.

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2026 College Football Playoff · updated Sep 8, 2026

2026 College Football Playoff Prediction

Q: Who is projected to win the 2026 College Football Playoff?

Backdoor Cover's model projects Georgia to win the 2026 College Football Playoff national championship.

Backdoor Cover’s model projects Georgia to win the 2026 College Football Playoff, out of a 12-team field that updates every week as games are played.

Below is the full projected 12-team field, seeding, and round-by-round bracket, refreshed weekly through the season.

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Predicted national champion

Georgia

preseason: Ohio State

57%

win prob. in the final

The projected bracket

Winners are highlighted; the number is the model's win probability for that matchup.

First Round

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

Championship

8Oregon65%

9Penn State

5Texas A&M90%

12New Mexico

7Notre Dame74%

10Texas Tech

6Texas77%

11Miami

1Georgia67%

4LSU50%

2Ohio State58%

3Oklahoma54%

1Georgia64%

4LSU

2Ohio State54%

3Oklahoma

1Georgia57%

2Ohio State

First four outTennessee, Indiana, Alabama, BYU

What's changed since the preseason

New projected champion: Georgia (preseason: Ohio State)

Moved into the field: LSU, Penn State, New Mexico

Dropped out: Indiana, Tennessee, Boise State

Biggest reseeds: Oklahoma #11→#3, Oregon #1→#8, Texas Tech #4→#10, Georgia #5→#1, Texas A&M #9→#5, Notre Dame #3→#7

Full seeded field

Seed	Team	Conf.
1	Georgia ★ first-round bye	SEC
2	Ohio State ★ first-round bye	Big Ten
3	Oklahoma first-round bye	SEC
4	LSU first-round bye	SEC
5	Texas A&M	SEC
6	Texas	SEC
7	Notre Dame	FBS Independents
8	Oregon	Big Ten
9	Penn State	Big Ten
10	Texas Tech ★	Big 12
11	Miami ★	ACC
12	New Mexico ★	Mountain West

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

the interactive bracket, every team’s conference title odds, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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All 2026 predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.