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2026 College Football Playoff, updated Oct 28, 2026.

College Football Playoff predictions

Backdoor Cover’s model gives Ohio State the best chance to win the 2026 College Football Playoff, at 22%. Ohio State, Miami and Indiana are the likeliest teams to make the 12-team field.

What moved since Oct 21: Utah up 26 points to 79%, UCLA up 22 points to 74%, Iowa down 35 points to 7% and Texas Tech down 34 points to 13% to make the field.

Title favorite

Ohio State

22%chance to win the national title

The 1 seed in my projected bracket. It was my preseason favorite too.

Next most likely champions

  1. Notre Dame20%
  2. Indiana14%
  3. Miami12%
  4. Alabama6%

Title odds from my simulated seasons, not the single bracket below.

The projected bracket

The single most likely bracket if every game goes the way my model expects. The number is the winner’s win probability in that game.

Backdoor CoverProjected 2026 College Football PlayoffOct 28, 2026

First round

seed 8Wake Forest54%
seed 9Georgia
seed 5Notre Dame90%
seed 12Boise State
seed 7Kentucky
seed 10BYU65%
seed 6UCLA
seed 11Alabama72%

Quarterfinals

Seeds 1 to 4 enter here after a bye.

seed 1Ohio State74%
seed 8Wake Forest
seed 4Utah
seed 5Notre Dame67%
seed 2Miami59%
seed 10BYU
seed 3Indiana
seed 11Alabama55%

Semifinals

seed 1Ohio State52%
seed 5Notre Dame
seed 2Miami
seed 11Alabama57%

Championship

seed 1Ohio State54%
seed 11Alabama

Projected champion

Ohio State

22% title odds

First four outTexas 51%LSU 34%Northwestern 36%Ole Miss 21%

What’s changed since the preseason

Moved into the field: Utah, UCLA, Kentucky, Wake Forest, BYU, Alabama

Dropped out: Oregon, Texas Tech, Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Oklahoma

Biggest reseeds: Miami 7 to 2, Georgia 5 to 9, Indiana 6 to 3, Notre Dame 3 to 5, Ohio State 2 to 1

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Playoff odds for every contender

The 26 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the 12-team field. Locks are 90% or better, likely 60 to 90%, on the bubble 25 to 60%, long shots 10 to 25%. Gap to the field is how far a team’s strength of record is ahead of (+) or behind (−) Alabama, the last team in, in wins.

Locks

90% or better to make the field3 teams
  1. 1
    Ohio State
    Big Ten, projected 10-2Gap to the field +1.89
    Make field94%
    Bye78%
    Title22%
    Up 1 points since last week
  2. 2
    Miami
    ACC, projected 11-1Gap to the field +1.39
    Make field94%
    Bye61%
    Title12%
    Up 8 points since last week
  3. 3
    Indiana
    Big Ten, projected 10-2Gap to the field +1.27
    Make field92%
    Bye59%
    Title14%
    Up 15 points since last week

Likely

60% to 90% to make the field5 teams
  1. 4
    Notre Dame
    Independent, projected 10-2Gap to the field +0.72
    Make field90%
    Bye26%
    Title20%
    Up 11 points since last week
  2. 5
    Utah
    Big 12, projected 11-1Gap to the field +0.73
    Make field79%
    Bye39%
    Title6%
    Up 26 points since last week
  3. 6
    UCLA
    Big Ten, projected 10-2Gap to the field +0.67
    Make field74%
    Bye21%
    Title1%
    Up 22 points since last week
  4. 7
    Kentucky
    SEC, projected 9-3Gap to the field +0.60
    Make field69%
    Bye24%
    Title1%
    Up 18 points since last week
  5. 8
    Wake Forest
    ACC, projected 10-2Gap to the field +0.45
    Make field64%
    Bye17%
    Title2%
    Up 9 points since last week

On the bubble

25% to 60% to make the field7 teams
  1. 9
    Georgia
    SEC, projected 10-2Gap to the field +0.32
    Make field56%
    Bye18%
    Title4%
    Up 2 points since last week
  2. 10
    BYU
    Big 12, projected 10-2Gap to the field +0.19
    Make field54%
    Bye11%
    Title2%
    Down 29 points since last week
  3. 11
    Texas
    SEC, projected 8-4Gap to the field −0.05
    Make field51%
    Bye7%
    Title3%
    Up 15 points since last week
  4. 12
    Alabama
    SEC, projected 9-3Gap to the field 0.00
    Make field44%
    Bye11%
    Title6%
    Up 2 points since last week
  5. 13
    Northwestern
    Big Ten, projected 8-4Gap to the field −0.33
    Make field36%
    Bye5%
    Title<1%
    Up 4 points since last week
  6. 14
    LSU
    SEC, projected 9-3Gap to the field −0.16
    Make field34%
    Bye8%
    Title5%
    Up 12 points since last week
  7. 15
    Boise State
    Pac-12, projected 9-2Gap to the field −0.93
    Make field26%
    Bye0%
    Title<1%
    Up 8 points since last week

Long shots

10% to 25% to make the field11 teams
  1. 16
    Nebraska
    Big Ten, projected 8-4Gap to the field −0.60
    Make field22%
    Bye2%
    Title1%
    Up 2 points since last week
  2. 17
    Ole Miss
    SEC, projected 8-4Gap to the field −0.55
    Make field21%
    Bye2%
    Title<1%
    Down 4 points since last week
  3. 18
    UTSA
    American, projected 9-3Gap to the field −1.37
    Make field19%
    Bye<1%
    Title0%
    Up 12 points since last week
  4. 19
    Wisconsin
    Big Ten, projected 9-3Gap to the field −0.63
    Make field18%
    Bye1%
    Title<1%
    Up 13 points since last week
  5. 20
    James Madison
    Sun Belt, projected 10-2Gap to the field −1.33
    Make field18%
    Bye0%
    Title0%
    Down 34 points since last week
  6. 21
    North Texas
    American, projected 9-3Gap to the field −1.74
    Make field17%
    Bye0%
    Title<1%
    Up 12 points since last week
  7. 22
    Houston
    Big 12, projected 9-3Gap to the field −0.61
    Make field14%
    Bye<1%
    Title<1%
    Down 17 points since last week
  8. 23
    USC
    Big Ten, projected 8-4Gap to the field −0.96
    Make field14%
    Bye1%
    Title<1%
    Down 14 points since last week
  9. 24
    Texas Tech
    Big 12, projected 9-3Gap to the field −1.00
    Make field13%
    Bye2%
    Title<1%
    Down 34 points since last week
  10. 25
    SMU
    ACC, projected 9-3Gap to the field −0.90
    Make field13%
    Bye1%
    Title<1%
    Up 6 points since last week
  11. 26
    New Mexico
    Mountain West, projected 10-2Gap to the field −1.48
    Make field11%
    Bye0%
    Title<1%
    Up 2 points since last week

The race for the field

The top eight teams’ chance to make the 12-team field after each week’s games. Each Wednesday’s update adds a point.

Chance to make the playoff by week, top 8 teamsLatest: Ohio State 94%, Miami 94%, Indiana 92%, Notre Dame 90%, Utah 79%, UCLA 74%, Kentucky 69%, Wake Forest 64%.0%25%50%75%100%4567891011121314CCGAfter weekWeeks still to playOhio State 94%Miami 94%Indiana 92%Notre Dame 90%Utah 79%UCLA 74%Kentucky 69%Wake Forest 64%Chance to make the playoff by week, top 8 teamsLatest: Ohio State 94%, Miami 94%, Indiana 92%, Notre Dame 90%, Utah 79%, UCLA 74%, Kentucky 69%, Wake Forest 64%.0%25%50%75%100%471013CCGAfter weekWeeks still to playOhio State 94%Miami 94%Indiana 92%Notre Dame 90%Utah 79%UCLA 74%Kentucky 69%Wake Forest 64%

Full seeded field

SeedTeamConf.
1
Ohio State
Big Ten
2
Miami
ACC
3
Indiana
Big Ten
4
Utah
Big 12
5
Notre Dame
Independent
6
UCLA
Big Ten
7
Kentucky
SEC
8
Wake Forest
ACC
9
Georgia
SEC
10
BYU
Big 12
11
Alabama
SEC
12
Boise State
Pac-12

How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.

Backdoor Cover Picks

Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.

My track record is on the Track Record page.

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