2026 College Football Predictions
My model’s projected record and win total for all 138 FBS teams, plus every conference race and the 12-team Playoff, updated every week as games are played.
Pick a conference or a team below, or jump to the college football playoff bracket.
This week’s leaderboards
Playoff odds are the share of my simulated seasons in which a team makes the 12-team field. Risers and fallers are the change in expected wins since my preseason projection.
Best playoff odds
- 1
Ohio State94% - 2
Miami94% - 3
Indiana92% - 4
Notre Dame90% - 5
Utah79% - 6
UCLA74% - 7
Kentucky69% - 8
Wake Forest64% - 9
Georgia56% - 10
BYU54%
Biggest risers since the preseason
- 1Kentucky+5.3
- 2Wake Forest+5.1
- 3UCLA+5.0
- 4
Georgia State+4.9 - 5
North Texas+4.0
Biggest fallers since the preseason
- 1
Old Dominion−3.8 - 2
Oregon−3.7 - 3
Hawai'i−3.6 - 4
Kennesaw State−3.6 - 5
Navy−3.2
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Every FBS team by conference
Projected record and playoff odds for every team, best first. Tap a team for its game-by-game outlook.
- Miami11-1, 94% playoff
- Wake Forest10-2, 64% playoff
SMU9-3, 13% playoff
Pittsburgh8-4, <1% playoff
Virginia Tech8-4, <1% playoff
Duke7-5, <1% playoff
Louisville7-5, <1% playoff
Clemson6-6, 0% playoff
North Carolina6-6, 1% playoff
Virginia6-6, 0% playoff
NC State6-6, 0% playoff
Boston College5-7, 0% playoff
Florida State5-7, 0% playoff
Stanford5-7, 0% playoff
Syracuse5-7, 0% playoff
California4-8, 0% playoff
Georgia Tech3-9, 0% playoff
American Athletic
American Athletic standings and title odds
UTSA9-3, 19% playoff- North Texas9-3, 17% playoff
South Florida8-4, <1% playoff
Memphis8-4, <1% playoff
Army8-4, <1% playoff
Tulsa7-5, 0% playoff
Florida Atlantic6-6, <1% playoff
UAB6-6, 0% playoff
East Carolina6-6, 0% playoff
Tulane5-7, 0% playoff- Navy5-7, 0% playoff
Temple4-8, 0% playoff
Rice2-10, 0% playoff
Charlotte2-10, 0% playoff
- Utah11-1, 79% playoff
- BYU10-2, 54% playoff
Houston9-3, 14% playoff
Texas Tech9-3, 13% playoff
Arizona9-3, 8% playoff
Oklahoma State8-4, 6% playoff
UCF8-4, 1% playoff
Cincinnati7-5, <1% playoff
Kansas State6-6, 0% playoff
West Virginia6-6, 0% playoff
Baylor6-6, 0% playoff
Arizona State5-7, 0% playoff
TCU5-7, 0% playoff
Kansas5-7, 0% playoff
Iowa State5-7, 0% playoff
Colorado3-9, 0% playoff
- Indiana10-2, 92% playoff
- UCLA10-2, 74% playoff
- Ohio State10-2, 94% playoff
Wisconsin9-3, 18% playoff
Northwestern8-4, 36% playoff
Nebraska8-4, 22% playoff
Iowa8-4, 7% playoff
USC8-4, 14% playoff- Oregon7-5, 6% playoff
Penn State7-5, 0% playoff
Michigan7-5, 1% playoff
Illinois6-6, <1% playoff
Minnesota6-6, <1% playoff
Washington6-6, <1% playoff
Purdue5-7, 0% playoff
Michigan State4-8, 0% playoff
Maryland3-9, 0% playoff
Rutgers3-9, 0% playoff
Conference USA
Conference USA standings and title odds
FBS Independents
Mid-American
Mid-American standings and title odds
Toledo9-3, <1% playoff
Ohio9-3, <1% playoff
Western Michigan8-4, 0% playoff
Miami (OH)7-5, 0% playoff
Buffalo7-5, 0% playoff
Massachusetts6-6, 0% playoff
Eastern Michigan5-7, 0% playoff
Central Michigan5-7, 0% playoff
Ball State5-7, 0% playoff
Kent State4-8, 0% playoff
Bowling Green3-9, 0% playoff
Sacramento State2-10, 0% playoff
Akron2-10, 0% playoff
Mountain West
Mountain West standings and title odds
- Georgia10-2, 56% playoff
Alabama9-3, 44% playoff- Kentucky9-3, 69% playoff
LSU9-3, 34% playoff
Texas8-4, 51% playoff
Ole Miss8-4, 21% playoff
Florida8-4, 9% playoff
Tennessee8-4, 4% playoff
Missouri7-5, 2% playoff
Oklahoma7-5, 4% playoff
South Carolina7-5, 1% playoff
Mississippi State7-5, <1% playoff
Auburn6-6, <1% playoff
Texas A&M6-6, 0% playoff
Arkansas4-8, 0% playoff
Vanderbilt4-8, 0% playoff
James Madison10-2, 18% playoff
Louisiana Tech8-4, 1% playoff
App State8-4, 0% playoff
Louisiana8-4, 0% playoff- Georgia State7-5, 0% playoff
Arkansas State6-6, 0% playoff
Georgia Southern6-6, 0% playoff
South Alabama6-6, 0% playoff
Marshall6-6, 0% playoff
Troy5-7, 0% playoff
Southern Miss4-8, 0% playoff- Old Dominion4-8, 0% playoff
Coastal Carolina4-8, 0% playoff
UL Monroe2-10, 0% playoff
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.