Week 9 College Football Predictions

All 56 games, in kickoff order. A Model Pick is the side the model lands on against the line and total. Green won, red lost. Model Picks aren’t bets. The games I bet are Backdoor Cover Picks. Every result is graded at DraftKings’ closing line, not the line when the pick went up.

Final	Matchup	Proj Line	Closing Line	Proj Total	Closing Total	Model Picks
Tuesday, Oct 27
35–21Final	Delaware Western Kentucky 7:00 PM CBSSN	Western Kentucky −1.7	Western Kentucky −2.5	55.8	55.5	Delaware +2.5Over 55.5
3–24Final	Sam Houston Missouri State 8:00 PM ESPN2	Missouri State −7.4	Missouri State −5.5	55.0	51.5	Missouri State −5.5Over 51.5
Wednesday, Oct 28
44–28Final	Kennesaw State Middle Tennessee 7:00 PM CBSSN	Kennesaw State −5.5	Kennesaw State −1.5	54.6	49.5	Kennesaw State −1.5Over 49.5
24–0Final	Jacksonville State New Mexico State 8:00 PM ESPN2	Jacksonville State −3.7	Jacksonville State −3	57.4	50.5	Jacksonville State −3.0Over 50.5
Thursday, Oct 29
41–48Final	Florida Atlantic North Texas 7:30 PM ESPN	North Texas −19.8	North Texas −15.5	67.0	78.5	North Texas −15.5Under 78.5
24–21Final	Troy James Madison 7:30 PM ESPN2	James Madison −19.2	James Madison −17.5	56.3	52.5	Troy +17.5Over 52.5
Friday, Oct 30
38–31Final	Tulane Charlotte 7:00 PM ESPN2	Tulane −12.4	Tulane −8.5	50.5	47.5	Tulane −8.5Over 47.5
41–9Final	Baylor UCF 7:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	UCF −7.6	Baylor −2.5	46.9	49.5	UCF +2.5Under 49.5
10–31Final	Kent State Sacramento State 10:30 PM ESPN2	Sacramento State −6.3	Kent State −7.5	47.1	47.5	Sacramento State +7.5Over 47.5
Saturday, Oct 31
26–34Final	Arizona Texas Tech 12:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Texas Tech −7.4	Texas Tech −4	52.1	55.5	Texas Tech −4.0Under 55.5
2–47Final	Boston College Duke 12:00 PM CW	Duke −14.7	Duke −7	49.9	49.5	Duke −7.0Over 49.5
10–23Final	Bowling Green Western Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN	Western Michigan −22.9	Western Michigan −14	49.3	44.5	Western Michigan −14.0Over 44.5
10–31Final	California NC State 12:00 PM ACC Network	NC State −18.1	NC State −9.5	59.7	56.5	NC State −9.5Over 56.5
20–17Final	Illinois Maryland 12:00 PM FS1	Illinois −9.9	Illinois −3	64.9	54.5	PIllinois −3.0Over 54.5
35–13Final	Notre Dame Navy 12:00 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Notre Dame −26.8	Notre Dame −30.5	54.0	54.5	Navy +30.5Under 54.5
27–30Final	SMU Syracuse 12:00 PM ESPN2	SMU −13.4	SMU −8.5	54.1	58.5	SMU −8.5Under 58.5
10–30Final	UAB South Florida 12:00 PM ESPNU	South Florida −17.5	South Florida −7.5	48.8	43.5	South Florida −7.5Over 43.5
0–30Final	Wisconsin Iowa 12:00 PM FoxRead the breakdown	Iowa −2.4	Iowa −2.5	44.0	36.5	Wisconsin +2.5Over 36.5
28–21Final	Michigan Rutgers 12:30 PM BTN	Michigan −19.1	Michigan −16.5	53.0	47.5	Michigan −16.5Over 47.5
15–45Final	Auburn Ole Miss 12:45 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Ole Miss −11.0	Ole Miss −10.5	55.5	58.5	Auburn +10.5Under 58.5
36–23Final	Marshall Old Dominion 1:00 PM ESPN+	Old Dominion −1.5	Marshall −3	50.1	45.5	Old Dominion +3.0Over 45.5
31–20Final	Coastal Carolina Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+	Georgia State −11.3	Georgia State −3.5	59.9	55.5	Georgia State −3.5Over 55.5
24–27Final	Kansas State Colorado 2:00 PM TNT	Kansas State −3.7	Colorado −3	50.1	47.5	PKansas State +3.0Over 47.5
35–20Final	Louisiana Tech South Alabama 3:00 PM ESPN+	Louisiana Tech −10.5	Louisiana Tech −6	63.7	57.5	Louisiana Tech −6.0Over 57.5
9–17Final	Temple East Carolina 3:00 PM ESPN+	East Carolina −3.1	East Carolina −4	51.6	51.5	Temple +4.0Over 51.5
26–35Final	UConn Air Force 3:00 PM MW+	Air Force −1.7	Air Force −2.5	54.8	53.5	Air Force −2.5Over 53.5
24–52Final	Stanford Louisville 3:15 PM ACC Network	Louisville −29.1	Louisville −22.5	58.0	59.5	Louisville −22.5Under 59.5
20–27Final	Arizona State BYU 3:30 PM FoxRead the breakdown	BYU −24.9	BYU −17.5	54.9	46.5	BYU −17.5Over 46.5
14–31Final	Colorado State Utah State 3:30 PM USA Net	Utah State −4.3	Utah State −9.5	56.4	59.5	Colorado State +9.5Under 59.5
8–27Final	Florida Georgia 3:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Georgia −8.3	Georgia −11.5	55.2	56.5	Florida +11.5Under 56.5
10–49Final	Florida International Liberty 3:30 PM CBSSN	Liberty −14.2	Liberty −13.5	49.4	45.5	Liberty −13.5Over 45.5
16–22Final	Kansas TCU 3:30 PM FS1	TCU −4.4	TCU −6.5	47.1	45.5	Kansas +6.5Over 45.5
16–23Final	Minnesota Indiana 3:30 PM CBSRead the breakdown	Indiana −32.0	Indiana −20.5	50.9	40.5	Indiana −20.5Over 40.5
26–34Final	Northwestern Oregon 3:30 PM PeacockRead the breakdown	Oregon −6.2	Oregon −4	51.2	47.5	Oregon −4.0Over 47.5
35–21Final	Southern Miss UL Monroe 3:30 PM ESPN+	Southern Miss −6.9	Southern Miss −3.5	54.0	54.5	Southern Miss −3.5Under 54.5
7–31Final	UTEP North Dakota State 3:30 PM MW+	North Dakota State −22.6	North Dakota State −23.5	52.5	44.5	UTEP +23.5Over 44.5
49–25Final	Utah Cincinnati 3:45 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Utah −12.6	Utah −7	61.8	56.5	Utah −7.0Over 56.5
7–51Final	Virginia Wake Forest 3:45 PM ESPN2	Wake Forest −21.3	Wake Forest −13.5	49.8	48.5	Wake Forest −13.5Over 48.5
21–16Final	New Mexico San José State 4:00 PM MW+	New Mexico −24.3	New Mexico −15.5	47.9	43.5	New Mexico −15.5Over 43.5
0–27Final	Nevada UCLA 4:15 PM BTN	UCLA −22.3	UCLA −22.5	48.2	43.5	Nevada +22.5Over 43.5
17–31Final	Purdue Penn State 4:15 PM BTN	Penn State −10.4	Penn State −10	55.2	55.5	Purdue +10.0Over 55.5
42–25Final	South Carolina Oklahoma 4:15 PM SEC Network	Oklahoma −3.6	Oklahoma −3.5	43.0	44.5	Oklahoma −3.5Under 44.5
3–19Final	App State Georgia Southern 6:30 PM ESPN+	Georgia Southern −7.1	Georgia Southern −6	55.8	54.5	Georgia Southern −6.0Over 54.5
36–24Final	Clemson Florida State 7:00 PM ACC NetworkRead the breakdown	Florida State −2.2	Florida State −4.5	53.7	50.5	Clemson +4.5Over 50.5
49–51Final	Oklahoma State Iowa State 7:00 PM Fox	Oklahoma State −8.8	Oklahoma State −10	54.0	58.5	Iowa State +10.0Under 58.5
20–26Final	Washington State San Diego State 7:00 PM CBSSN	San Diego State −2.0	San Diego State −2.5	40.2	47.5	Washington State +2.5Under 47.5
11–34Final	Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ESPN2	Pittsburgh −17.5	Pittsburgh −9.5	52.7	54.5	Pittsburgh −9.5Under 54.5
38–35Final	Miami North Carolina 7:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Miami −15.9	Miami −13.5	52.3	52.5	Miami −13.5Under 52.5
3–31Final	Mississippi State Texas 7:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Texas −17.1	Texas −19.5	52.2	50.5	Mississippi State +19.5Over 50.5
18–30Final	Ohio State USC 7:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	Ohio State −14.1	Ohio State −6.5	58.0	50.5	Ohio State −6.5Over 50.5
34–10Final	Missouri Arkansas 7:45 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Missouri −11.5	Missouri −10.5	54.3	48.5	Missouri −10.5Over 48.5
22–49Final	Army Memphis 8:00 PM ESPNU	Memphis −6.1	Memphis −6	61.9	59.5	Memphis −6.0Over 59.5
17–10Final	Washington Nebraska 8:00 PM BTN	Nebraska −12.1	Nebraska −7.5	51.9	49.5	Nebraska −7.5Over 49.5
45–46Final	Texas State Boise State 10:00 PM CW	Boise State −5.5	Boise State −10	65.9	63.5	Texas State +10.0Over 63.5
24–31Final	Northern Illinois UNLV 10:30 PM CBSSN	UNLV −16.9	UNLV −21.5	53.6	55.5	Northern Illinois +21.5Under 55.5
22–38Final	Oregon State Fresno State 11:00 PM USA Net	Oregon State −10.9	Oregon State −6	56.0	57.5	Oregon State −6.0Under 57.5

Game	Proj spread	Proj total	Model picksat final line
Tuesday, Oct 27
DELWKU Final 35–21	WKU −1.7	55.8	DEL +2.5O 55.5
SHSUMOST Final 3–24	MOST −7.4	55.0	MOST −5.5O 51.5
Wednesday, Oct 28
KENNMTSU Final 44–28	KENN −5.5	54.6	KENN −1.5O 49.5
JXSTNMSU Final 24–0	JXST −3.7	57.4	JXST −3.0O 50.5
Thursday, Oct 29
FAUUNT Final 41–48	UNT −19.8	67.0	UNT −15.5U 78.5
TROYJMU Final 24–21	JMU −19.2	56.3	TROY +17.5O 52.5
Friday, Oct 30
TULNCLT Final 38–31	TULN −12.4	50.5	TULN −8.5O 47.5
BAYUCF Final 41–9 Breakdown	UCF −7.6	46.9	UCF +2.5U 49.5
KENTSAC Final 10–31	SAC −6.3	47.1	SAC +7.5O 47.5
Saturday, Oct 31
ARIZTTU Final 26–34 Breakdown	TTU −7.4	52.1	TTU −4.0U 55.5
BCDUKE Final 2–47	DUKE −14.7	49.9	DUKE −7.0O 49.5
BGSUWMU Final 10–23	WMU −22.9	49.3	WMU −14.0O 44.5
CALNCSU Final 10–31	NCSU −18.1	59.7	NCSU −9.5O 56.5
ILLMD Final 20–17	ILL −9.9	64.9	PILL −3.0O 54.5
NDNAVY Final 35–13 Breakdown	ND −26.8	54.0	NAVY +30.5U 54.5
SMUSYR Final 27–30	SMU −13.4	54.1	SMU −8.5U 58.5
UABUSF Final 10–30	USF −17.5	48.8	USF −7.5O 43.5
WISIOWA Final 0–30 Breakdown	IOWA −2.4	44.0	WIS +2.5O 36.5
MICHRUTG Final 28–21	MICH −19.1	53.0	MICH −16.5O 47.5
AUBMISS Final 15–45 Breakdown	MISS −11.0	55.5	AUB +10.5U 58.5
MRSHODU Final 36–23	ODU −1.5	50.1	ODU +3.0O 45.5
CCUGAST Final 31–20	GAST −11.3	59.9	GAST −3.5O 55.5
KSUCOLO Final 24–27	KSU −3.7	50.1	PKSU +3.0O 47.5
LTUSA Final 35–20	LT −10.5	63.7	LT −6.0O 57.5
TEMECU Final 9–17	ECU −3.1	51.6	TEM +4.0O 51.5
CONNAF Final 26–35	AF −1.7	54.8	AF −2.5O 53.5
STANLOU Final 24–52	LOU −29.1	58.0	LOU −22.5U 59.5
ASUBYU Final 20–27 Breakdown	BYU −24.9	54.9	BYU −17.5O 46.5
CSUUSU Final 14–31	USU −4.3	56.4	CSU +9.5U 59.5
FLAUGA Final 8–27 Breakdown	UGA −8.3	55.2	FLA +11.5U 56.5
FIULIB Final 10–49	LIB −14.2	49.4	LIB −13.5O 45.5
KUTCU Final 16–22	TCU −4.4	47.1	KU +6.5O 45.5
MINNIU Final 16–23 Breakdown	IU −32.0	50.9	IU −20.5O 40.5
NUORE Final 26–34 Breakdown	ORE −6.2	51.2	ORE −4.0O 47.5
USMULM Final 35–21	USM −6.9	54.0	USM −3.5U 54.5
UTEPNDSU Final 7–31	NDSU −22.6	52.5	UTEP +23.5O 44.5
UTAHCIN Final 49–25 Breakdown	UTAH −12.6	61.8	UTAH −7.0O 56.5
UVAWAKE Final 7–51	WAKE −21.3	49.8	WAKE −13.5O 48.5
UNMSJSU Final 21–16	UNM −24.3	47.9	UNM −15.5O 43.5
NEVUCLA Final 0–27	UCLA −22.3	48.2	NEV +22.5O 43.5
PURPSU Final 17–31	PSU −10.4	55.2	PUR +10.0O 55.5
SCOU Final 42–25	OU −3.6	43.0	OU −3.5U 44.5
APPGASO Final 3–19	GASO −7.1	55.8	GASO −6.0O 54.5
CLEMFSU Final 36–24 Breakdown	FSU −2.2	53.7	CLEM +4.5O 50.5
OKSTISU Final 49–51	OKST −8.8	54.0	ISU +10.0U 58.5
WSUSDSU Final 20–26	SDSU −2.0	40.2	WSU +2.5U 47.5
GTPITT Final 11–34	PITT −17.5	52.7	PITT −9.5U 54.5
MIAUNC Final 38–35 Breakdown	MIA −15.9	52.3	MIA −13.5U 52.5
MSSTTEX Final 3–31 Breakdown	TEX −17.1	52.2	MSST +19.5O 50.5
OSUUSC Final 18–30 Breakdown	OSU −14.1	58.0	OSU −6.5O 50.5
MIZARK Final 34–10 Breakdown	MIZ −11.5	54.3	MIZ −10.5O 48.5
ARMYMEM Final 22–49	MEM −6.1	61.9	MEM −6.0O 59.5
WASHNEB Final 17–10	NEB −12.1	51.9	NEB −7.5O 49.5
TXSTBOIS Final 45–46	BOIS −5.5	65.9	TXST +10.0O 63.5
NIUUNLV Final 24–31	UNLV −16.9	53.6	NIU +21.5U 55.5
ORSTFRES Final 22–38	ORST −10.9	56.0	ORST −6.0U 57.5

How the model is doing. 260–231–9 against the spread (53.0%), 178–165 on totals (51.9%) and 360–140 straight up (72.0%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.