Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction: Will Ohio State Cover -3.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Indiana -2.64 for Ohio State at Indiana, 6.1 points off the market’s Ohio State -3.5, and gives Indiana a 57% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model has Indiana winning outright, but the market has Ohio State favored. The market is more bullish on Ohio State than my model is, disagreeing on both who wins and by how much.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts (this game) | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Indiana vs Ohio State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Indiana to win, with a 57% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Ohio State at Indiana?
The model projects Indiana -2.64 and the market has Ohio State -3.5, a gap of 6.1 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Indiana +3.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 174–154–1 against the spread (53.0%), 97–75 on totals (56.4%) and 247–82 straight up (75.1%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Ohio State at Indiana one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Ohio State and Indiana.
Published Oct 12, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 13, 2026.