Indiana Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Indiana to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.5 expected wins. Up 0.3 wins from the preseason projection. Indiana makes the 12-team Playoff in 92% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Indiana a 34% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Indiana games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Indiana as the 3 seed with a first-round bye, going out in the quarterfinals to 11-seed Alabama (45% for Indiana in that game). Indiana earns a first-round bye in 59% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Indiana. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs North TexasWon52-16 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs HowardWon55-0 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won38-0
- Week 4Fri Sep 25
vs NorthwesternWon29-23 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at RutgersWon47-15 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at NebraskaWon20-17 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs Ohio StateLost15-19 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at MichiganWon13-6 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Minnesota98% chance Indiana wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs USC76% chance Indiana wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Washington80% chance Indiana wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Purdue94% chance Indiana wins
How many games Indiana wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 11-1 (56% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 10.2 in the preseason to 10.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.