Ohio State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Ohio State to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.0 expected wins. Down 0.8 wins from the preseason projection. Ohio State makes the 12-team Playoff in 94% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Ohio State a 57% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Ohio State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Ohio State as the 1 seed with a first-round bye, winning the title game over Alabama (54% for Ohio State in that game). Ohio State earns a first-round bye in 78% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Ohio State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Ball StateWon56-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at TexasLost23-24 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Kent StateWon59-3 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs IllinoisWon42-19 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at IowaWon31-14 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs MarylandWon45-16 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at IndianaWon19-15 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at USC81% chance Ohio State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Oregon73% chance Ohio State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Northwestern88% chance Ohio State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Nebraska71% chance Ohio State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Michigan88% chance Ohio State wins
How many games Ohio State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 10-2 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 10.8 in the preseason to 10.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.