LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction: Will LSU Cover -13.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU -10.04 for Mississippi State at LSU, 3.5 points off the market’s LSU -13.5, and gives LSU a 74% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on LSU than the market is. I have them winning by 10 points with a 74% win probability, but the market has them favored by 13.5, so the market thinks they'll win by more than my model does.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts (this game) | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win LSU vs Mississippi State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU to win, with a 74% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Mississippi State at LSU?
The model projects LSU -10.04 and the market has LSU -13.5, a gap of 3.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Mississippi State +13.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 174–154–1 against the spread (53.0%), 97–75 on totals (56.4%) and 247–82 straight up (75.1%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Mississippi State at LSU one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Mississippi State and LSU.
Published Oct 12, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 13, 2026.