Mississippi State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Mississippi State to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.6 expected wins. Up 2.2 wins from the preseason projection. Mississippi State makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Mississippi State a 0% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Mississippi State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Mississippi State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Mississippi State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs UL MonroeWon62-13 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at MinnesotaWon38-13 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won41-34
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs MissouriWon31-24 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs AlabamaLost23-56 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at LSULost0-31 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs OklahomaLost15-23 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Texas14% chance Mississippi State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Vanderbilt76% chance Mississippi State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Auburn59% chance Mississippi State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Tennessee Tech93% chance Mississippi State wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Ole Miss17% chance Mississippi State wins
How many games Mississippi State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.4 in the preseason to 6.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.