How many games will Mississippi State win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Mississippi State is 5.2 wins.

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SEC · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Mississippi State Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Mississippi State's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Mississippi State to finish 5-7 in 2026, about 5.2 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Mississippi State to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 5.2 expected wins. That’s up 0.8 wins from our preseason number.

1-0

record so far

5-7

projected record

5.2 ▲0.8 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Mississippi State to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 5.2 expected wins. The model gives Mississippi State a 0% chance to win the SEC outright.

Model called 1 of 1 of Mississippi State’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs UL Monroe	Won 62–13 ✓
Wk 2	@ Minnesota	22%
Wk 3	@ South Carolina	16%
Wk 4	vs Missouri	48%
Wk 5	vs Alabama	25%
Wk 7	@ LSU	15%
Wk 8	vs Oklahoma	6%
Wk 9	@ Texas	13%
Wk 10	vs Vanderbilt	70%
Wk 11	vs Auburn	74%
Wk 12	vs Tennessee Tech	93%
Wk 13	@ Ole Miss	37%

Win-total distribution

2 wins

3 wins

4 wins

21%

5 wins

30%

6 wins

24%

7 wins

12%

8 wins

9 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Mississippi State has a 0% shot at the SEC title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Mississippi State’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

See every graded pick

More: SEC projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.