LSU Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects LSU to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.9 expected wins. Up 0.6 wins from the preseason projection. LSU makes the 12-team Playoff in 34% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives LSU a 12% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 LSU games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
LSU earns a first-round bye in 8% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for LSU. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs ClemsonWon51-10 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won45-14
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
at Ole MissLost24-32 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Texas A&MWon35-6 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs McNeeseWon63-14 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at KentuckyLost34-35 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won31-0
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
at AuburnWon38-17 - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Alabama58% chance LSU wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Texas67% chance LSU wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Tennessee75% chance LSU wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Arkansas93% chance LSU wins
How many games LSU wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (44% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.3 in the preseason to 8.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.