Arizona State vs Kansas State Prediction: Will Kansas State Cover -3.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Kansas State -1.57 for Kansas State at Arizona State, 1.9 points off the market’s Kansas State -3.5, and gives Kansas State a 54% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Kansas State than the market is. I have them winning, but by less than the spread, so the market's confidence in them doesn't match what I'm seeing.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts (this game) | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Arizona State vs Kansas State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Kansas State to win, with a 54% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Kansas State at Arizona State?
The model projects Kansas State -1.57 and the market has Kansas State -3.5, a gap of 1.9 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Arizona State +3.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Kansas State at Arizona State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Kansas State and Arizona State.
Published Oct 20, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 20, 2026.