Week 8 College Football Predictions

Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.

All 56 games, in kickoff order. A Model Pick is the side the model lands on against the line and total. Model Picks aren’t bets. The games I bet are Backdoor Cover Picks. Every result is graded at DraftKings’ closing line, not the line when the pick went up.

Kickoff ET	Matchup	Proj Line	Current Line	Proj Total	Current Total	Model Picks
Tuesday, Oct 20
7:00 PMCBSSN	Middle Tennessee Florida International 7:00 PM CBSSN	Florida International −8.9	Florida International −9.5	49.2	45.5	Middle Tennessee +9.5Over 45.5
7:00 PMESPNU	Missouri State Delaware 7:00 PM ESPNU	Delaware −6.5	Delaware −2.5	53.7	52.5	Delaware −2.5Over 52.5
7:30 PMESPN2	South Alabama Marshall 7:30 PM ESPN2	South Alabama −1.8	South Alabama −2.5	65.7	65.5	Marshall +2.5Over 65.5
Wednesday, Oct 21
8:00 PMESPN2	New Mexico State Sam Houston 8:00 PM ESPN2	New Mexico State −7.6	New Mexico State −3.0	49.9	44.5	New Mexico State −3.0Over 44.5
Thursday, Oct 22
7:00 PMESPNU	James Madison App State 7:00 PM ESPNU	James Madison −10.7	James Madison −10.5	51.0	56.5	James Madison −10.5Under 56.5
7:00 PMCBSSN	Liberty Kennesaw State 7:00 PM CBSSN	Liberty −12.4	Liberty −10.5	53.0	49.5	Liberty −10.5Over 49.5
7:30 PMESPN2	East Carolina Memphis 7:30 PM ESPN2	Memphis −7.6	Memphis −10.5	57.7	54.5	East Carolina +10.5Over 54.5
Friday, Oct 23
7:00 PMESPN	Duke Virginia 7:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Virginia −2.6	Virginia −1.5	48.5	47.5	Virginia −1.5Over 47.5
7:00 PMCBSSN	Massachusetts UConn 7:00 PM CBSSN	UConn −12.7	UConn −14.5	56.8	49.5	Massachusetts +14.5Over 49.5
8:30 PMESPN2	Army Tulsa 8:30 PM ESPN2	Tulsa −1.5	Tulsa −1.5	53.1	53.5	Army +1.5Under 53.5
9:00 PMCW	Air Force Wyoming 9:00 PM CW	Air Force −10.7	Air Force −5.5	46.7	45.5	Air Force −5.5Over 45.5
10:30 PMESPN	NC State Stanford 10:30 PM ESPN	NC State −12.6	NC State −7.0	57.7	55.5	NC State −7.0Over 55.5
Saturday, Oct 24
12:00 PMCW	California SMU 12:00 PM CW	SMU −24.2	SMU −19.5	59.5	53.5	SMU −19.5Over 53.5
12:00 PMFox	Indiana Michigan 12:00 PM FoxRead the breakdown	Indiana −4.5	Indiana −7.0	49.7	41.5	Michigan +7.0Over 41.5
12:00 PMABC	LSU Auburn 12:00 PM ABCRead the breakdown	LSU −14.4	LSU −7.5	46.6	51.5	LSU −7.5Under 51.5
12:00 PMESPN	Pittsburgh Miami 12:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Miami −10.9	Miami −20.5	52.5	50.5	Pittsburgh +20.5Over 50.5
12:00 PMESPNU	Rice Florida Atlantic 12:00 PM ESPNU	Florida Atlantic −5.5	Florida Atlantic −7.5	57.8	53.5	Rice +7.5Over 53.5
12:00 PMPeacock	Rutgers Northwestern 12:00 PM Peacock	Northwestern −21.4	Northwestern −16.5	64.2	58.5	Northwestern −16.5Over 58.5
12:00 PMFS1	Texas Tech Cincinnati 12:00 PM FS1	Texas Tech −8.9	Texas Tech −10.5	53.2	56.5	Cincinnati +10.5Under 56.5
12:00 PMESPN2	West Virginia TCU 12:00 PM ESPN2	TCU −5.7	TCU −8.5	53.8	56.5	West Virginia +8.5Under 56.5
12:00 PMCBSSN	Western Michigan Toledo 12:00 PM CBSSN	Toledo −6.0	Toledo −3.5	51.6	45.5	Toledo −3.5Over 45.5
1:00 PMESPN+	Akron Kent State 1:00 PM ESPN+	Akron −1.5	Kent State −2.5	51.0	46.5	Akron +2.5Over 46.5
1:00 PMTNT	Baylor Kansas 1:00 PM TNT	Baylor −4.4	Baylor −3.0	53.0	53.5	Baylor −3.0Under 53.5
1:00 PMESPN+	Miami (OH) Central Michigan 1:00 PM ESPN+	Miami (OH) −6.4	Miami (OH) −2.5	51.6	40.5	Miami (OH) −2.5Over 40.5
3:00 PMBTN	Oregon Illinois 3:00 PM BTN	Oregon −12.2	Oregon −8.5	58.4	50.5	Oregon −8.5Over 50.5
3:30 PMFox	BYU UCF 3:30 PM FoxRead the breakdown	BYU −8.2	BYU −6.5	46.3	43.5	BYU −6.5Over 43.5
3:30 PMACC Network	Boston College Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACC Network	Georgia Tech −13.5	Georgia Tech −4.5	51.4	49.5	Georgia Tech −4.5Over 49.5
3:30 PMESPN+	Bowling Green Buffalo 3:30 PM ESPN+	Buffalo −7.7	Buffalo −3.5	47.7	44.5	Buffalo −3.5Over 44.5
3:30 PMMW+	Hawai'i Northern Illinois 3:30 PM MW+	Northern Illinois −1.7	Hawai'i −4.5	50.1	47.5	Northern Illinois +4.5Over 47.5
3:30 PMFS1	Iowa Minnesota 3:30 PM FS1	Iowa −17.8	Iowa −7.5	43.4	40.5	Iowa −7.5Over 40.5
3:30 PMCBS	Michigan State UCLA 3:30 PM CBSRead the breakdown	UCLA −10.4	UCLA −13.5	44.5	44.5	Michigan State +13.5Under 44.5
3:30 PMCBSSN	North Texas Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN	North Texas −3.1	North Texas −2.5	60.2	62.5	North Texas −2.5Under 62.5
3:30 PMSEC Network	Oklahoma Mississippi State 3:30 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Mississippi State −1.2	Oklahoma −4.0	53.0	44.5	Mississippi State +4.0Over 44.5
3:30 PMESPN+	Sacramento State Ball State 3:30 PM ESPN+	Ball State −1.8	Ball State −13.5	52.1	51.5	Sacramento State +13.5Over 51.5
3:30 PMESPN	Tennessee South Carolina 3:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	South Carolina −3.0	South Carolina −2.5	52.8	50.5	South Carolina −2.5Over 50.5
3:30 PMABC	Texas A&M Alabama 3:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Alabama −21.4	Alabama −14.5	46.9	50.5	Alabama −14.5Under 50.5
3:45 PMESPN2	Kansas State Arizona State 3:45 PM ESPN2Read the breakdown	Kansas State −1.6	Kansas State −3.5	55.5	56.5	Arizona State +3.5Under 56.5
4:00 PMESPNU	Eastern Michigan Ohio 4:00 PM ESPNU	Ohio −21.8	Ohio −12.5	53.8	48.5	Ohio −12.5Over 48.5
4:00 PMESPN+	UL Monroe Troy 4:00 PM ESPN+	Troy −20.2	Troy −14.5	54.9	51.5	Troy −14.5Over 51.5
5:00 PMESPN+	Louisiana Southern Miss 5:00 PM ESPN+	Louisiana −9.9	Louisiana −10.5	58.5	52.5	Southern Miss +10.5Over 52.5
5:00 PMESPN+	Old Dominion Louisiana Tech 5:00 PM ESPN+	Louisiana Tech −11.2	Louisiana Tech −13.5	51.3	46.5	Old Dominion +13.5Over 46.5
5:00 PMMW+	San José State Nevada 5:00 PM MW+	Nevada −11.7	Nevada −5.5	47.5	46.5	Nevada −5.5Over 46.5
6:00 PMUSA Net	Boise State Washington State 6:00 PM USA Net	Boise State −20.1	Boise State −12.5	51.1	51.5	Boise State −12.5Under 51.5
6:30 PMCW	San Diego State Colorado State 6:30 PM CW	Colorado State −3.0	San Diego State −1.5	56.4	64.5	Colorado State +1.5Under 64.5
7:00 PMFS1	Colorado Oklahoma State 7:00 PM FS1	Oklahoma State −12.0	Oklahoma State −13.5	49.4	55.5	Colorado +13.5Under 55.5
7:00 PMESPN+	Georgia State Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN+	Georgia State −5.6	Georgia State −1.5	61.5	58.5	Georgia State −1.5Over 58.5
7:00 PMESPN	Virginia Tech Clemson 7:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Virginia Tech −5.6	Clemson −2.5	52.3	49.5	Virginia Tech +2.5Over 49.5
7:30 PMESPN2	Iowa State Arizona 7:30 PM ESPN2	Arizona −10.8	Arizona −9.5	55.8	50.5	Arizona −9.5Over 50.5
7:30 PMABC	Ole Miss Texas 7:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Texas −9.4	Texas −3.5	54.8	53.5	Texas −3.5Over 53.5
7:30 PMACC Network	Syracuse North Carolina 7:30 PM ACC Network	North Carolina −13.5	North Carolina −7.5	50.7	46.5	North Carolina −7.5Over 46.5
7:30 PMNBC	USC Wisconsin 7:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	USC −0.9	USC −2.5	57.0	49.5	Wisconsin +2.5Over 49.5
7:30 PMCBSSN	Utah State Texas State 7:30 PM CBSSN	Texas State −17.9	Texas State −12.5	57.6	60.5	Texas State −12.5Under 60.5
7:30 PMSEC Network	Vanderbilt Kentucky 7:30 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Kentucky −12.2	Kentucky −10.5	56.5	51.5	Kentucky −10.5Over 51.5
8:00 PMESPNU	UTSA Tulane 8:00 PM ESPNU	Tulane −5.2	UTSA −2.5	49.9	51.5	Tulane +2.5Under 51.5
10:00 PMCW	North Dakota State New Mexico 10:00 PM CW	New Mexico −11.7	New Mexico −4.5	51.5	41.5	New Mexico −4.5Over 41.5
10:15 PMESPN	Houston Utah 10:15 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Utah −4.5	Utah −6.5	57.3	56.5	Houston +6.5Over 56.5

Game	Proj spread	Proj total	Model picksat current line
Tuesday, Oct 20
MTSUFIU 7:00 PM CBSSN	FIU −8.9	49.2	MTSU +9.5Over 45.5
MOSTDEL 7:00 PM ESPNU	DEL −6.5	53.7	DEL −2.5Over 52.5
USAMRSH 7:30 PM ESPN2	USA −1.8	65.7	MRSH +2.5Over 65.5
Wednesday, Oct 21
NMSUSHSU 8:00 PM ESPN2	NMSU −7.6	49.9	NMSU −3.0Over 44.5
Thursday, Oct 22
JMUAPP 7:00 PM ESPNU	JMU −10.7	51.0	JMU −10.5Under 56.5
LIBKENN 7:00 PM CBSSN	LIB −12.4	53.0	LIB −10.5Over 49.5
ECUMEM 7:30 PM ESPN2	MEM −7.6	57.7	ECU +10.5Over 54.5
Friday, Oct 23
DUKEUVA 7:00 PM ESPN Breakdown	UVA −2.6	48.5	UVA −1.5Over 47.5
MASSCONN 7:00 PM CBSSN	CONN −12.7	56.8	MASS +14.5Over 49.5
ARMYTLSA 8:30 PM ESPN2	TLSA −1.5	53.1	ARMY +1.5Under 53.5
AFWYO 9:00 PM CW	AF −10.7	46.7	AF −5.5Over 45.5
NCSUSTAN 10:30 PM ESPN	NCSU −12.6	57.7	NCSU −7.0Over 55.5
Saturday, Oct 24
CALSMU 12:00 PM CW	SMU −24.2	59.5	SMU −19.5Over 53.5
IUMICH 12:00 PM Fox Breakdown	IU −4.5	49.7	MICH +7.0Over 41.5
LSUAUB 12:00 PM ABC Breakdown	LSU −14.4	46.6	LSU −7.5Under 51.5
PITTMIA 12:00 PM ESPN Breakdown	MIA −10.9	52.5	PITT +20.5Over 50.5
RICEFAU 12:00 PM ESPNU	FAU −5.5	57.8	RICE +7.5Over 53.5
RUTGNU 12:00 PM Peacock	NU −21.4	64.2	NU −16.5Over 58.5
TTUCIN 12:00 PM FS1	TTU −8.9	53.2	CIN +10.5Under 56.5
WVUTCU 12:00 PM ESPN2	TCU −5.7	53.8	WVU +8.5Under 56.5
WMUTOL 12:00 PM CBSSN	TOL −6.0	51.6	TOL −3.5Over 45.5
AKRKENT 1:00 PM ESPN+	AKR −1.5	51.0	AKR +2.5Over 46.5
BAYKU 1:00 PM TNT	BAY −4.4	53.0	BAY −3.0Under 53.5
M-OHCMU 1:00 PM ESPN+	M-OH −6.4	51.6	M-OH −2.5Over 40.5
OREILL 3:00 PM BTN	ORE −12.2	58.4	ORE −8.5Over 50.5
BYUUCF 3:30 PM Fox Breakdown	BYU −8.2	46.3	BYU −6.5Over 43.5
BCGT 3:30 PM ACC Network	GT −13.5	51.4	GT −4.5Over 49.5
BGSUBUF 3:30 PM ESPN+	BUF −7.7	47.7	BUF −3.5Over 44.5
HAWNIU 3:30 PM MW+	NIU −1.7	50.1	NIU +4.5Over 47.5
IOWAMINN 3:30 PM FS1	IOWA −17.8	43.4	IOWA −7.5Over 40.5
MSUUCLA 3:30 PM CBS Breakdown	UCLA −10.4	44.5	MSU +13.5Under 44.5
UNTNAVY 3:30 PM CBSSN	UNT −3.1	60.2	UNT −2.5Under 62.5
OUMSST 3:30 PM SEC Network Breakdown	MSST −1.2	53.0	MSST +4.0Over 44.5
SACBALL 3:30 PM ESPN+	BALL −1.8	52.1	SAC +13.5Over 51.5
TENNSC 3:30 PM ESPN Breakdown	SC −3.0	52.8	SC −2.5Over 50.5
TA&MALA 3:30 PM ABC Breakdown	ALA −21.4	46.9	ALA −14.5Under 50.5
KSUASU 3:45 PM ESPN2 Breakdown	KSU −1.6	55.5	ASU +3.5Under 56.5
EMUOHIO 4:00 PM ESPNU	OHIO −21.8	53.8	OHIO −12.5Over 48.5
ULMTROY 4:00 PM ESPN+	TROY −20.2	54.9	TROY −14.5Over 51.5
ULUSM 5:00 PM ESPN+	UL −9.9	58.5	USM +10.5Over 52.5
ODULT 5:00 PM ESPN+	LT −11.2	51.3	ODU +13.5Over 46.5
SJSUNEV 5:00 PM MW+	NEV −11.7	47.5	NEV −5.5Over 46.5
BOISWSU 6:00 PM USA Net	BOIS −20.1	51.1	BOIS −12.5Under 51.5
SDSUCSU 6:30 PM CW	CSU −3.0	56.4	CSU +1.5Under 64.5
COLOOKST 7:00 PM FS1	OKST −12.0	49.4	COLO +13.5Under 55.5
GASTARST 7:00 PM ESPN+	GAST −5.6	61.5	GAST −1.5Over 58.5
VTCLEM 7:00 PM ESPN Breakdown	VT −5.6	52.3	VT +2.5Over 49.5
ISUARIZ 7:30 PM ESPN2	ARIZ −10.8	55.8	ARIZ −9.5Over 50.5
MISSTEX 7:30 PM ABC Breakdown	TEX −9.4	54.8	TEX −3.5Over 53.5
SYRUNC 7:30 PM ACC Network	UNC −13.5	50.7	UNC −7.5Over 46.5
USCWIS 7:30 PM NBC Breakdown	USC −0.9	57.0	WIS +2.5Over 49.5
USUTXST 7:30 PM CBSSN	TXST −17.9	57.6	TXST −12.5Under 60.5
VANUK 7:30 PM SEC Network Breakdown	UK −12.2	56.5	UK −10.5Over 51.5
UTSATULN 8:00 PM ESPNU	TULN −5.2	49.9	TULN +2.5Under 51.5
NDSUUNM 10:00 PM CW	UNM −11.7	51.5	UNM −4.5Over 41.5
HOUUTAH 10:15 PM ESPN Breakdown	UTAH −4.5	57.3	HOU +6.5Over 56.5

How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.