How many games will Arizona State win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Arizona State is 6.1 wins.

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Big 12 · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Arizona State Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Arizona State's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Arizona State to finish 6-6 in 2026, about 6.1 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Arizona State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.1 expected wins. That’s up 0.2 wins from our preseason number.

6-6

projected record

6.1 ▲0.2 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Arizona State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.1 expected wins. The model gives Arizona State a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Morgan State	93%
Wk 2	@ Texas A&M	13%
Wk 3	@ Kansas	31%
Wk 5	vs Baylor	74%
Wk 6	vs Hawai'i	97%
Wk 7	@ Texas Tech	16%
Wk 8	vs Kansas State	36%
Wk 9	@ BYU	10%
Wk 10	vs Colorado	80%
Wk 11	@ UCF	50%
Wk 12	vs Oklahoma State	92%
Wk 13	@ Arizona	18%

Win-total distribution

3 wins

4 wins

5 wins

22%

6 wins

31%

7 wins

24%

8 wins

11%

9 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Arizona State has a 0% shot at the Big 12 title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Arizona State’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: Big 12 projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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