Arizona State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Arizona State to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 5.4 expected wins. Down 0.5 wins from the preseason projection. Arizona State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Arizona State a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Arizona State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Arizona State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Arizona State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Morgan StateWon70-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Texas A&MLost20-48 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
Won24-17 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs BaylorLost19-55 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Hawai'iWon30-12 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at Texas TechLost25-53 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs Kansas StateWon28-17 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at BYU6% chance Arizona State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Colorado58% chance Arizona State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at UCF22% chance Arizona State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2131% chance Arizona State wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Arizona18% chance Arizona State wins
How many games Arizona State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.9 in the preseason to 5.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.