How many games will Kansas State win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Kansas State is 9.9 wins.

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Big 12 · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Kansas State Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Kansas State's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Kansas State to finish 10-2 in 2026, about 9.9 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Kansas State to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 9.9 expected wins. That’s up 1.3 wins from our preseason number.

10-2

projected record

9.9 ▲1.3 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Kansas State to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 9.9 expected wins. The model gives Kansas State a 11% chance to win the Big 12 outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Nicholls	93%
Wk 2	vs Washington State	95%
Wk 3	vs Tulane	94%
Wk 4	@ Cincinnati	84%
Wk 6	vs Houston	73%
Wk 7	vs Kansas	72%
Wk 8	@ Arizona State	64%
Wk 9	@ Colorado	90%
Wk 10	vs Oklahoma State	96%
Wk 11	@ TCU	68%
Wk 12	vs Arizona	71%
Wk 13	@ Iowa State	90%

Win-total distribution

6 wins

7 wins

8 wins

10%

9 wins

22%

10 wins

31%

11 wins

25%

12 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Kansas State has a 30% shot at the Big 12 title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Kansas State’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: Big 12 projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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