Kansas State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Kansas State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.1 expected wins. Down 2.5 wins from the preseason projection. Kansas State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Kansas State a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Kansas State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Kansas State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Kansas State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs NichollsWon71-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won34-7
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs TulaneWon31-20 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at CincinnatiLost26-31 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs HoustonLost16-35 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs KansasWon35-24 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost17-28
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Colorado59% chance Kansas State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 737% chance Kansas State wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
at TCU29% chance Kansas State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Arizona31% chance Kansas State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Iowa State52% chance Kansas State wins
How many games Kansas State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.6 in the preseason to 6.1 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.