Auburn vs LSU Prediction: Will LSU Cover -7.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU -14.41 for LSU at Auburn, 6.9 points off the market’s LSU -7.5, and gives LSU a 82% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on LSU than the market is. I have them winning by 14 points with an 82% win probability, but the market only has them favored by 7.5. Both of us think LSU wins, just not by nearly the same margin.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts (this game) | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Auburn vs LSU?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU to win, with a 82% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for LSU at Auburn?
The model projects LSU -14.41 and the market has LSU -7.5, a gap of 6.9 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
LSU -7.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is LSU at Auburn one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.