Auburn Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Auburn to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.4 expected wins. Auburn makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Auburn a 0% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Auburn games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Auburn earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Auburn. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
Won17-16 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won43-8
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs FloridaLost39-44 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs VanderbiltWon21-15 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at TennesseeLost14-24 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at GeorgiaWon27-24 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs LSULost17-38 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Ole Miss24% chance Auburn wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Arkansas75% chance Auburn wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1441% chance Auburn wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Samford93% chance Auburn wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Alabama7% chance Auburn wins
How many games Auburn wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.4 in the preseason to 6.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.