Michigan vs Indiana Prediction: Will Indiana Cover -7?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Indiana -4.54 for Indiana at Michigan, 2.5 points off the market’s Indiana -7, and gives Indiana a 61% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Indiana than the market is. I have them winning by 4 points, but the market has them favored by 7, so there's a 3-point gap between us on the number.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts (this game) | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Michigan vs Indiana?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Indiana to win, with a 61% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Indiana at Michigan?
The model projects Indiana -4.54 and the market has Indiana -7, a gap of 2.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Michigan +7, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Indiana at Michigan one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.