Michigan Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Michigan to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.7 expected wins. Down 1.2 wins from the preseason projection. Michigan makes the 12-team Playoff in 1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Michigan a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Michigan games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
Michigan earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Michigan. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won13-12
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs OklahomaWon17-10 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs UTEPWon52-17 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs IowaLost19-20 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at MinnesotaLost14-20 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs Penn StateWon21-18 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs IndianaLost6-13 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Rutgers89% chance Michigan wins - Week 10Sat Nov 783% chance Michigan wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Oregon27% chance Michigan wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs UCLA59% chance Michigan wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Ohio State12% chance Michigan wins
How many games Michigan wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.9 in the preseason to 6.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.