Mississippi State vs Oklahoma Prediction: Will Oklahoma Cover -4?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Mississippi State -1.17 for Oklahoma at Mississippi State, 5.2 points off the market’s Oklahoma -4, and gives Mississippi State a 53% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model has Mississippi State winning outright, but the market has Oklahoma favored. The market is more bullish on Oklahoma than I am, pricing them as a 4-point favorite while my model sees Mississippi State as a slight favorite.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts (this game) | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Mississippi State vs Oklahoma?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Mississippi State to win, with a 53% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Oklahoma at Mississippi State?
The model projects Mississippi State -1.17 and the market has Oklahoma -4, a gap of 5.2 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Mississippi State +4, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Oklahoma at Mississippi State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Oklahoma and Mississippi State.
Published Oct 20, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 20, 2026.