Oklahoma Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Oklahoma to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.7 expected wins. Down 0.6 wins from the preseason projection. Oklahoma makes the 12-team Playoff in 4% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Oklahoma a <1% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Oklahoma games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Oklahoma earns a first-round bye in <1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Oklahoma. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
vs UTEPWon51-0 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at MichiganLost10-17 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs New MexicoWon14-6 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at GeorgiaLost13-41 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
Won27-24 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs KentuckyLost13-21 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Won23-15
- Week 9Sat Oct 3159% chance Oklahoma wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Florida38% chance Oklahoma wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Ole Miss59% chance Oklahoma wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Texas A&M63% chance Oklahoma wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Missouri48% chance Oklahoma wins
How many games Oklahoma wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (34% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.3 in the preseason to 6.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.