South Carolina vs Tennessee Prediction: Will South Carolina Cover -2.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects South Carolina -2.97 for Tennessee at South Carolina, 0.5 points off the market’s South Carolina -2.5, and gives South Carolina a 57% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on South Carolina than the market is. I have them winning by 3 points with a 57% win probability, while the market only has them favored by 2.5. Both of us pick South Carolina to win, just not by quite the same margin.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts (this game) | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win South Carolina vs Tennessee?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects South Carolina to win, with a 57% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Tennessee at South Carolina?
The model projects South Carolina -2.97 and the market has South Carolina -2.5, a gap of 0.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
South Carolina -2.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Tennessee at South Carolina one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Tennessee and South Carolina.
Published Oct 20, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 20, 2026.