How many games will Tennessee win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Tennessee is 8.8 wins.

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SEC · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Tennessee Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Tennessee's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Tennessee to finish 9-3 in 2026, about 8.8 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Tennessee to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.8 expected wins. That’s up 0.7 wins from our preseason number.

9-3

projected record

8.8 ▲0.7 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Tennessee to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.8 expected wins. The model gives Tennessee a 2% chance to win the SEC outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Furman	93%
Wk 2	@ Georgia Tech	90%
Wk 3	vs Kennesaw State	93%
Wk 4	vs Texas	41%
Wk 5	vs Auburn	95%
Wk 6	@ Arkansas	89%
Wk 7	vs Alabama	72%
Wk 8	@ South Carolina	67%
Wk 10	vs Kentucky	95%
Wk 11	@ Texas A&M	23%
Wk 12	vs LSU	42%
Wk 13	@ Vanderbilt	81%

Win-total distribution

5 wins

6 wins

7 wins

11%

8 wins

24%

9 wins

31%

10 wins

22%

11 wins

12 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Tennessee has a 6% shot at the SEC title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Tennessee’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: SEC projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.