Tennessee Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Tennessee to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 7.8 expected wins. Down 0.3 wins from the preseason projection. Tennessee makes the 12-team Playoff in 4% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Tennessee a 1% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Tennessee games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Tennessee earns a first-round bye in 1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Tennessee. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs FurmanWon56-9 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Georgia TechWon45-24 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won42-9
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs TexasLost17-20 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs AuburnWon24-14 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at ArkansasWon24-17 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs AlabamaWon26-10 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost24-27
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Kentucky50% chance Tennessee wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Texas A&M40% chance Tennessee wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs LSU25% chance Tennessee wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Vanderbilt69% chance Tennessee wins
How many games Tennessee wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.1 in the preseason to 7.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.