Texas vs Ole Miss Prediction: Will Texas Cover -3.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas -9.36 for Ole Miss at Texas, 5.9 points off the market’s Texas -3.5, and gives Texas a 72% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Texas than the market is. I have them winning by 9 points with a 72 percent win probability, while the market has them favored by only 3.5. Both sides agree Texas wins, but I'm projecting a more comfortable margin than the spread reflects.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts (this game) | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Texas vs Ole Miss?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas to win, with a 72% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Ole Miss at Texas?
The model projects Texas -9.36 and the market has Texas -3.5, a gap of 5.9 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Texas -3.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Ole Miss at Texas one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.