Ole Miss Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Ole Miss to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.2 expected wins. Up 1.4 wins from the preseason projection. Ole Miss makes the 12-team Playoff in 21% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Ole Miss a 2% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Ole Miss games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Ole Miss earns a first-round bye in 2% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Ole Miss. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sun Sep 6
Won41-38 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs CharlotteWon41-9 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs LSUWon32-24 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at FloridaLost28-52 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at VanderbiltWon52-17 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs MissouriWon31-3 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at TexasLost27-34 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Auburn76% chance Ole Miss wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Georgia32% chance Ole Miss wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Oklahoma41% chance Ole Miss wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Wofford93% chance Ole Miss wins - Week 13Fri Nov 2783% chance Ole Miss wins
How many games Ole Miss wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.8 in the preseason to 8.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.