Texas Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Texas to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.5 expected wins. Texas makes the 12-team Playoff in 51% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Texas a 4% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Texas games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Texas earns a first-round bye in 7% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Texas. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Texas StateWon59-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Ohio StateWon24-23 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs UTSAWon30-6 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at TennesseeWon20-17 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
Lost24-27 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs FloridaLost24-27 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs Ole MissWon34-27 - Week 9Sat Oct 3186% chance Texas wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Missouri68% chance Texas wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at LSU33% chance Texas wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Arkansas93% chance Texas wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Texas A&M69% chance Texas wins
How many games Texas wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.4 in the preseason to 8.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.