Week 1 College Football Predictions

All 51 games, in kickoff order. A Model Pick is the side the model lands on against the line and total. Green won, red lost. Model Picks aren’t bets. The games I bet are Backdoor Cover Picks. Every result is graded at DraftKings’ closing line, not the line when the pick went up.

Final	Matchup	Proj Line	Closing Line	Proj Total	Closing Total	Model Picks
Saturday, Aug 29
15–10Final	North Carolina TCU 12:00 PM ESPN	TCU −6.4	TCU −7.5	—	—	North Carolina +7.5
26–42Final	San José State USC 3:00 PM NBCRead the breakdown	USC −27.7	USC −37.5	—	—	San José State +37.5
8–34Final	NC State Virginia 3:30 PM ESPN	Virginia −9.8	Virginia −4	—	—	Virginia −4.0
7–33Final	Jacksonville State North Dakota State 5:30 PM CBSSN	North Dakota State −8.5	North Dakota State −6.5	—	—	North Dakota State −6.5
17–28Final	Sacramento State Eastern Michigan 6:30 PM ESPN+	Eastern Michigan −9.8	Eastern Michigan −9.5	—	—	Eastern Michigan −9.5
27–37Final	Hawai'i Stanford 7:00 PM ACC Network	Stanford −7.4	Stanford −4.5	—	—	Stanford −4.5
17–34Final	New Mexico State Florida State 7:00 PM CWRead the breakdown	Florida State −23.1	Florida State −30.5	—	—	New Mexico State +30.5
27–21Final	Memphis UNLV 10:00 PM FOX	UNLV −4.9	UNLV −4.5	—	—	UNLV −4.5
Thursday, Sep 3
37–21Final	Massachusetts Rutgers 6:00 PM BTN	Rutgers −20.7	Rutgers −29.5	—	—	Massachusetts +29.5
16–38Final	Akron Wake Forest 7:00 PM ACC Network	Wake Forest −25.1	Wake Forest −27.5	—	—	Akron +27.5
14–13Final	Colorado Georgia Tech 8:00 PM ESPN	Georgia Tech −4.5	Georgia Tech −6.5	—	—	Colorado +6.5
23–42Final	UAB Illinois 9:00 PM BTN	Illinois −24.7	Illinois −25.5	—	—	UAB +25.5
Friday, Sep 4
27–21Final	San José State Eastern Michigan 6:30 PM ESPN+	Eastern Michigan −15.9	Eastern Michigan −1.5	—	—	Eastern Michigan −1.5
20–30Final	Toledo Michigan State 8:00 PM FS1	Michigan State −14.9	Michigan State −10	—	—	PMichigan State −10.0
0–51Final	UTEP Oklahoma 8:00 PM SECN+Read the breakdown	Oklahoma −32.8	Oklahoma −40.5	—	—	UTEP +40.5
0–39Final	Fresno State USC 9:00 PM FOXRead the breakdown	USC −22.4	USC −21.5	—	—	USC −21.5
45–6Final	Miami Stanford 9:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Miami −16.6	Miami −24.5	—	—	Stanford +24.5
Saturday, Sep 5
24–31Final	Coastal Carolina West Virginia 12:00 PM TNT	West Virginia −23.0	West Virginia −21	—	—	West Virginia −21.0
10–48Final	East Carolina Alabama 12:00 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Alabama −17.6	Alabama −28.5	—	—	East Carolina +28.5
13–20Final	Liberty James Madison 12:00 PM ESPNU	James Madison −11.3	James Madison −6	—	—	James Madison −6.0
16–52Final	North Texas Indiana 12:00 PM FOX	Indiana −33.1	Indiana −39.5	—	—	North Texas +39.5
21–49Final	Ohio Nebraska 12:00 PM FS1	Nebraska −16.7	Nebraska −23.5	—	—	Ohio +23.5
20–33Final	Oregon State Houston 12:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Houston −8.0	Houston −21	—	—	Oregon State +21.0
3–56Final	Ball State Ohio State 12:30 PM BTNRead the breakdown	Ohio State −36.7	Ohio State −50.5	—	—	Ball State +50.5
14–59Final	Miami (OH) Pittsburgh 12:30 PM CW	Pittsburgh −18.0	Pittsburgh −16.5	—	—	Pittsburgh −16.5
0–57Final	Kent State South Carolina 12:45 PM SEC Network	South Carolina −28.4	South Carolina −35.5	—	—	Kent State +35.5
16–17Final	Baylor Auburn 3:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Auburn −8.1	Auburn −6.5	—	—	Auburn −6.5
27–34Final	Boise State Oregon 3:30 PM CBSRead the breakdown	Oregon −27.1	Oregon −24.5	—	—	Oregon −24.5
15–34Final	Boston College Cincinnati 3:30 PM FOX	Cincinnati −6.2	Cincinnati −7	—	—	Boston College +7.0
0–45Final	Marshall Penn State 3:30 PM FS1	Penn State −24.1	Penn State −23.5	—	—	Penn State −23.5
7–59Final	Texas State Texas 3:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Texas −19.0	Texas −29.5	—	—	Texas State +29.5
3–17Final	Tulane Duke 3:30 PM ACC NetworkRead the breakdown	Duke −20.1	Duke −9.5	—	—	Duke −9.5
10–24Final	Oklahoma State Tulsa 3:45 PM ESPNU	Oklahoma State −9.0	Oklahoma State −13.5	—	—	Tulsa +13.5
0–40Final	Northern Illinois Iowa 4:15 PM BTN	Iowa −29.5	Iowa −31.5	—	—	Northern Illinois +31.5
13–35Final	Wyoming Colorado State 6:00 PM USA Net	Colorado State −8.7	Colorado State −2.5	—	—	Colorado State −2.5
24–42Final	Arkansas State Memphis 7:00 PM ESPN+	Memphis −26.1	Memphis −10.5	—	—	Memphis −10.5
9–19Final	Florida International South Florida 7:00 PM ESPN+	South Florida −24.5	South Florida −14.5	—	—	South Florida −14.5
0–50Final	Missouri State Texas A&M 7:00 PM ESPN	Texas A&M −32.5	Texas A&M −38.5	—	—	Missouri State +38.5
21–24Final	Sam Houston Troy 7:00 PM ESPN+	Troy −21.6	Troy −15.5	—	—	Troy −15.5
10–51Final	Clemson LSU 7:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	LSU −6.8	LSU −10	—	—	Clemson +10.0
13–62Final	UL Monroe Mississippi State 7:30 PM ESPNU	Mississippi State −24.4	Mississippi State −28.5	—	—	UL Monroe +28.5
12–13Final	Western Michigan Michigan 7:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	Michigan −16.2	Michigan −27.5	—	—	Western Michigan +27.5
21–66Final	Florida Atlantic Florida 7:45 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Florida −18.5	Florida −26.5	—	—	Florida Atlantic +26.5
7–38Final	Central Michigan New Mexico 10:00 PM FS1	New Mexico −12.6	New Mexico −11.5	—	—	New Mexico −11.5
21–6Final	UNLV Hawai'i 10:00 PM CW	UNLV −4.0	UNLV −2.5	—	—	UNLV −2.5
45–24Final	UCLA California 10:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	California −5.8	UCLA −2.5	—	—	California +2.5
14–49Final	Western Kentucky Nevada 10:30 PM CBSSN	Nevada −1.0	Western Kentucky −1.5	—	—	Nevada +1.5
Sunday, Sep 6
10–24Final	Washington State Washington 4:00 PM NBCRead the breakdown	Washington −19.1	Washington −23.5	—	—	Washington State +23.5
38–41Final	Louisville Ole Miss 7:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Ole Miss −5.0	Ole Miss −6.5	—	—	Louisville +6.5
13–41Final	Wisconsin Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	Notre Dame −31.2	Notre Dame −21	—	—	Notre Dame −21.0
Monday, Sep 7
27–24Final	SMU Florida State 7:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Florida State −1.5	SMU −3	—	—	PFlorida State +3.0

Game	Proj spread	Proj total	Model picksat final line
Saturday, Aug 29
UNCTCU Final 15–10	TCU −6.4	—	UNC +7.5
SJSUUSC Final 26–42 Breakdown	USC −27.7	—	SJSU +37.5
NCSUUVA Final 8–34	UVA −9.8	—	UVA −4.0
JXSTNDSU Final 7–33	NDSU −8.5	—	NDSU −6.5
SACEMU Final 17–28	EMU −9.8	—	EMU −9.5
HAWSTAN Final 27–37	STAN −7.4	—	STAN −4.5
NMSUFSU Final 17–34 Breakdown	FSU −23.1	—	NMSU +30.5
MEMUNLV Final 27–21	UNLV −4.9	—	UNLV −4.5
Thursday, Sep 3
MASSRUTG Final 37–21	RUTG −20.7	—	MASS +29.5
AKRWAKE Final 16–38	WAKE −25.1	—	AKR +27.5
COLOGT Final 14–13	GT −4.5	—	COLO +6.5
UABILL Final 23–42	ILL −24.7	—	UAB +25.5
Friday, Sep 4
SJSUEMU Final 27–21	EMU −15.9	—	EMU −1.5
TOLMSU Final 20–30	MSU −14.9	—	PMSU −10.0
UTEPOU Final 0–51 Breakdown	OU −32.8	—	UTEP +40.5
FRESUSC Final 0–39 Breakdown	USC −22.4	—	USC −21.5
MIASTAN Final 45–6 Breakdown	MIA −16.6	—	STAN +24.5
Saturday, Sep 5
CCUWVU Final 24–31	WVU −23.0	—	WVU −21.0
ECUALA Final 10–48 Breakdown	ALA −17.6	—	ECU +28.5
LIBJMU Final 13–20	JMU −11.3	—	JMU −6.0
UNTIU Final 16–52	IU −33.1	—	UNT +39.5
OHIONEB Final 21–49	NEB −16.7	—	OHIO +23.5
ORSTHOU Final 20–33 Breakdown	HOU −8.0	—	ORST +21.0
BALLOSU Final 3–56 Breakdown	OSU −36.7	—	BALL +50.5
M-OHPITT Final 14–59	PITT −18.0	—	PITT −16.5
KENTSC Final 0–57	SC −28.4	—	KENT +35.5
BAYAUB Final 16–17 Breakdown	AUB −8.1	—	AUB −6.5
BOISORE Final 27–34 Breakdown	ORE −27.1	—	ORE −24.5
BCCIN Final 15–34	CIN −6.2	—	BC +7.0
MRSHPSU Final 0–45	PSU −24.1	—	PSU −23.5
TXSTTEX Final 7–59 Breakdown	TEX −19.0	—	TXST +29.5
TULNDUKE Final 3–17 Breakdown	DUKE −20.1	—	DUKE −9.5
OKSTTLSA Final 10–24	OKST −9.0	—	TLSA +13.5
NIUIOWA Final 0–40	IOWA −29.5	—	NIU +31.5
WYOCSU Final 13–35	CSU −8.7	—	CSU −2.5
ARSTMEM Final 24–42	MEM −26.1	—	MEM −10.5
FIUUSF Final 9–19	USF −24.5	—	USF −14.5
MOSTTA&M Final 0–50	TA&M −32.5	—	MOST +38.5
SHSUTROY Final 21–24	TROY −21.6	—	TROY −15.5
CLEMLSU Final 10–51 Breakdown	LSU −6.8	—	CLEM +10.0
ULMMSST Final 13–62	MSST −24.4	—	ULM +28.5
WMUMICH Final 12–13 Breakdown	MICH −16.2	—	WMU +27.5
FAUFLA Final 21–66 Breakdown	FLA −18.5	—	FAU +26.5
CMUUNM Final 7–38	UNM −12.6	—	UNM −11.5
UNLVHAW Final 21–6	UNLV −4.0	—	UNLV −2.5
UCLACAL Final 45–24 Breakdown	CAL −5.8	—	CAL +2.5
WKUNEV Final 14–49	NEV −1.0	—	NEV +1.5
Sunday, Sep 6
WSUWASH Final 10–24 Breakdown	WASH −19.1	—	WSU +23.5
LOUMISS Final 38–41 Breakdown	MISS −5.0	—	LOU +6.5
WISND Final 13–41 Breakdown	ND −31.2	—	ND −21.0
Monday, Sep 7
SMUFSU Final 27–24 Breakdown	FSU −1.5	—	PFSU +3.0

How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.