Ball State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Ball State to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.7 expected wins. Up 1.0 wins from the preseason projection. Ball State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Ball State a <1% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Ball State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Ball State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Ball State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at Ohio StateLost3-56 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Stony BrookWon41-17 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at LibertyLost15-51 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Kent StateLost13-26 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs ToledoLost24-39 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at NorthwesternLost14-45 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won32-31
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Won34-17
- Week 10Wed Nov 444% chance Ball State wins
- Week 11Wed Nov 11
vs Buffalo56% chance Ball State wins - Week 12Tue Nov 17
at Ohio13% chance Ball State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2862% chance Ball State wins
How many games Ball State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.7 in the preseason to 4.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.