Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction: Will Michigan Cover -13.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Michigan -14.2 for Michigan State at Michigan, 0.7 points off the market’s Michigan -13.5, and gives Michigan a 82% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Michigan than the market is. Both of us have them winning, but I'm projecting a bigger margin than the spread allows, so there's real daylight between my view and the odds.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
Recent meetings Michigan leads 7–3 in the last 10 meetings
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win Michigan vs Michigan State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Michigan to win, with a 82% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Michigan State at Michigan?
The model projects Michigan -14.2 and the market has Michigan -13.5, a gap of 0.7 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Michigan -13.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 260–231–9 against the spread (53.0%), 178–165 on totals (51.9%) and 360–140 straight up (72.0%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Michigan State at Michigan one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Other Week 10 breakdowns
All Week 10 games
Season predictions: Michigan State and Michigan.
Published Nov 4, 2026. Numbers refreshed Nov 4, 2026.