Michigan State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Michigan State to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.5 expected wins. Down 1.3 wins from the preseason projection. Michigan State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Michigan State a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 6 of 8 Michigan State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Michigan State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Michigan State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
vs ToledoWon30-20 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won35-7
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
at Notre DameLost10-27 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs NebraskaLost13-31 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at WisconsinLost3-31 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs IllinoisLost37-38 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs NorthwesternLost21-24 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at UCLALost10-28 - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Michigan17% chance Michigan State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Washington48% chance Michigan State wins - Week 12Fri Nov 20
vs Oregon24% chance Michigan State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Rutgers64% chance Michigan State wins
How many games Michigan State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 3-9 (38% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.8 in the preseason to 3.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.