Missouri vs Texas Prediction: Will Texas Cover -2.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas -5.4 for Texas at Missouri, 2.9 points off the market’s Texas -2.5, and gives Texas a 63% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Texas than the market is. I have them winning by 5 points with a 63% win probability, while the market only favors them by 2.5. The two of us agree Texas wins, just not by how much.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Missouri vs Texas?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas to win, with a 63% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Texas at Missouri?
The model projects Texas -5.4 and the market has Texas -2.5, a gap of 2.9 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Texas -2.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 260–231–9 against the spread (53.0%), 178–165 on totals (51.9%) and 360–140 straight up (72.0%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Texas at Missouri one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
