Missouri Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Missouri to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.2 expected wins. Down 0.5 wins from the preseason projection. Missouri makes the 12-team Playoff in 2% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Missouri a <1% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Missouri games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Missouri earns a first-round bye in <1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Missouri. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
vs Arkansas-Pine BluffWon54-14 - Week 2Fri Sep 11
at KansasWon38-21 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs TroyWon27-17 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Lost24-31
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs FloridaWon45-17 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Texas A&MWon27-6 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at Ole MissLost3-31 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Arkansas77% chance Missouri wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Texas32% chance Missouri wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Georgia18% chance Missouri wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Kentucky45% chance Missouri wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Oklahoma52% chance Missouri wins
How many games Missouri wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.7 in the preseason to 7.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.