Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction: Will Ohio State Cover -7.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State -9.3 for Oregon at Ohio State, 1.8 points off the market’s Ohio State -7.5, and gives Ohio State a 72% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Ohio State than the market is. I have them winning by 9 points with a 72% win probability, while the market has them favored by just 7.5. Both agree Ohio State wins, but I'm more confident in the margin.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
Recent meetings Oregon leads 2–1 in the last 3 meetings
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win Ohio State vs Oregon?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State to win, with a 72% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Oregon at Ohio State?
The model projects Ohio State -9.3 and the market has Ohio State -7.5, a gap of 1.8 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Ohio State -7.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 260–231–9 against the spread (53.0%), 178–165 on totals (51.9%) and 360–140 straight up (72.0%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Oregon at Ohio State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Other Week 10 breakdowns
All Week 10 games
Season predictions: Oregon and Ohio State.
Published Nov 4, 2026. Numbers refreshed Nov 4, 2026.