Oregon Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Oregon to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.2 expected wins. Down 3.7 wins from the preseason projection. Oregon makes the 12-team Playoff in 6% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Oregon a <1% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Oregon games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Oregon earns a first-round bye in <1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Oregon. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Boise StateWon34-27 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Lost31-39
- Week 3Fri Sep 18
vs Portland StateWon84-0 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at USCWon41-27 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs UCLALost15-17 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs NebraskaWon17-14 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at IllinoisLost10-21 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Northwestern65% chance Oregon wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Ohio State27% chance Oregon wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Michigan73% chance Oregon wins - Week 12Fri Nov 2076% chance Oregon wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Washington78% chance Oregon wins
How many games Oregon wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 10.9 in the preseason to 7.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.