Utah vs BYU Prediction: Will Utah Cover -5.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Utah -9.0 for BYU at Utah, 3.5 points off the market’s Utah -5.5, and gives Utah a 72% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Utah than the market is. I have them winning by 9, while the market has them favored by just 5.5, so there's a real gap between us on how much better Utah is in this game.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
Recent meetings Utah leads 4–3 in the last 7 meetings
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Utah vs BYU?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Utah to win, with a 72% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for BYU at Utah?
The model projects Utah -9.0 and the market has Utah -5.5, a gap of 3.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Utah -5.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 260–231–9 against the spread (53.0%), 178–165 on totals (51.9%) and 360–140 straight up (72.0%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is BYU at Utah one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
