Utah Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Utah to finish 11-1 in 2026, with 10.8 expected wins. Up 1.8 wins from the preseason projection. Utah makes the 12-team Playoff in 79% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Utah a 58% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Utah games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Utah as the 4 seed with a first-round bye, going out in the quarterfinals to 5-seed Notre Dame (33% for Utah in that game). Utah earns a first-round bye in 39% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Utah. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
vs IdahoWon66-14 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs ArkansasWon43-10 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Utah StateWon33-0 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Iowa StateWon31-17 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs KansasWon41-24 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at ColoradoWon27-24 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs HoustonWon21-13 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Cincinnati79% chance Utah wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs BYU68% chance Utah wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Arizona68% chance Utah wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at TCU68% chance Utah wins - Week 13Fri Nov 2794% chance Utah wins
How many games Utah wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 11-1 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 9.0 in the preseason to 10.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.