BYU Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects BYU to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 9.7 expected wins. Up 0.8 wins from the preseason projection. BYU makes the 12-team Playoff in 54% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives BYU a 18% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 BYU games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has BYU as the 10 seed, going out in the quarterfinals to 2-seed Miami (41% for BYU in that game). BYU earns a first-round bye in 11% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for BYU. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Utah TechWon63-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs ArizonaWon28-17 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won41-23
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at TCUWon17-10 - Week 6Fri Oct 9
vs Iowa StateWon24-10 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs Notre DameWon28-24 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at UCFLost31-39 - Week 9Sat Oct 3194% chance BYU wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Utah32% chance BYU wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Baylor88% chance BYU wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Kansas74% chance BYU wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Cincinnati77% chance BYU wins
How many games BYU wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 10-2 (45% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.9 in the preseason to 9.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.