Washington vs Penn State Prediction: Will Washington Cover -1.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Penn State -2.1 for Penn State at Washington, 3.6 points off the market’s Washington -1.5, and gives Penn State a 55% win probability.
What this tells us
My model has Penn State winning outright, but the market has Washington favored. The market is more bullish on Washington than my model is, disagreeing on both the winner and the spread.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win Washington vs Penn State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Penn State to win, with a 55% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Penn State at Washington?
The model projects Penn State -2.1 and the market has Washington -1.5, a gap of 3.6 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Penn State +1.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 260–231–9 against the spread (53.0%), 178–165 on totals (51.9%) and 360–140 straight up (72.0%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Penn State at Washington one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Other Week 10 breakdowns
All Week 10 games
Season predictions: Penn State and Washington.
Published Nov 4, 2026. Numbers refreshed Nov 4, 2026.