Washington Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Washington to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.6 expected wins. Down 2.3 wins from the preseason projection. Washington makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Washington a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Washington games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Washington earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Washington. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sun Sep 6Won24-10
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Utah StateWon16-14 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Eastern WashingtonWon48-16 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs MinnesotaLost24-27 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at USCLost21-25 - Week 6Fri Oct 9
vs IowaLost24-41 - Week 7Fri Oct 16
at PurdueWon38-26 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Nebraska22% chance Washington wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Penn State46% chance Washington wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1452% chance Washington wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Indiana20% chance Washington wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Oregon22% chance Washington wins
How many games Washington wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (34% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.9 in the preseason to 5.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.