Penn State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Penn State to finish 11-1 in 2026, with 10.7 expected wins. That’s up 1.4 wins from our preseason number.
Our statistical model projects Penn State to finish 11-1 in 2026, with 10.7 expected wins. The model gives Penn State a 20% chance to win the Big Ten outright.
Model called 1 of 1 of Penn State’s games right so far this season.
Game-by-game
Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.
| Week | Opponent | Result / win prob |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs Marshall | Won 45–0 ✓ |
| Wk 2 | @ Temple | 99% |
| Wk 3 | vs Buffalo | 96% |
| Wk 4 | vs Wisconsin | 100% |
| Wk 5 | @ Northwestern | 95% |
| Wk 6 | vs USC | 66% |
| Wk 7 | @ Michigan | 69% |
| Wk 9 | vs Purdue | 94% |
| Wk 10 | @ Washington | 78% |
| Wk 11 | vs Minnesota | 87% |
| Wk 12 | vs Rutgers | 99% |
| Wk 13 | @ Maryland | 91% |
Win-total distribution
What subscribers get
Everything above is the free model. The model slots Penn State into the 12-team Playoff as a 9-seed. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.
New members’ first week is 99¢ — and the first losing week’s on us. 2026 picks verified on Juice Reel.
Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
© 2026 Backdoor Cover LLC