Penn State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Penn State to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.8 expected wins. Down 2.5 wins from the preseason projection. Penn State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Penn State a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Penn State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Penn State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Penn State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs MarshallWon45-0 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at TempleWon27-9 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs BuffaloWon55-13 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs WisconsinLost20-24 - Week 5Fri Oct 2
at NorthwesternLost13-34 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs USCLost23-31 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at MichiganLost18-21 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Purdue74% chance Penn State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Washington54% chance Penn State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Minnesota84% chance Penn State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Rutgers84% chance Penn State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Maryland80% chance Penn State wins
How many games Penn State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 9.3 in the preseason to 6.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.