Boise State vs Memphis Prediction: Will Boise State Cover -8.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Boise State -7.88 for Memphis at Boise State, 0.6 points off the market’s Boise State -8.5, and gives Boise State a 79% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Boise State than the market. It projects Boise State to win by a decisive margin, but the market is pricing in an even larger advantage. That divergence between two reads of the same game is what my system is built to flag.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Boise State vs Memphis?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Boise State to win, with a 79% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Memphis at Boise State?
The model projects Boise State -7.88 and the market has Boise State -8.5, a gap of 0.6 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Memphis +8.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Memphis at Boise State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Memphis and Boise State.
Published Sep 8, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 11, 2026.