Boise State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Boise State to finish 9-2 in 2026, with 9.1 expected wins. Up 0.9 wins from the preseason projection. Boise State makes the 12-team Playoff in 26% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Boise State a 49% chance to win the Pac-12 outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Boise State games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Boise State as the 12 seed, going out in the first round to 5-seed Notre Dame (10% for Boise State in that game). Boise State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Boise State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at OregonLost27-34 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs MemphisWon38-20 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs South DakotaWon38-24 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won32-7
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs Utah StateWon37-18 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at Fresno StateWon38-31 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Won31-10
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Texas State64% chance Boise State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 793% chance Boise State wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Oregon State57% chance Boise State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2195% chance Boise State wins
How many games Boise State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-2 (47% of simulations). Regular season, 11 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.2 in the preseason to 9.1 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.