How many games will Memphis win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Memphis is 8.1 wins.

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American Athletic · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Memphis Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Memphis's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Memphis to finish 8-4 in 2026, about 8.1 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Memphis to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.1 expected wins. That’s up 0.4 wins from our preseason number.

2-0

record so far

8-4

projected record

8.1 ▲0.4 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Memphis to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.1 expected wins. The model gives Memphis a 8% chance to win the American Athletic outright.

Model called 2 of 2 of Memphis’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	@ UNLV	Won 42–24 ✓
Wk 1	vs Arkansas State	Won 42–24 ✓
Wk 2	@ Boise State	28%
Wk 3	vs UT Martin	93%
Wk 5	@ Charlotte	99%
Wk 6	vs UAB	95%
Wk 7	@ Tulane	78%
Wk 8	vs East Carolina	83%
Wk 9	vs Army	48%
Wk 11	@ South Florida	59%
Wk 12	@ Navy	30%
Wk 13	vs Temple	81%

Win-total distribution

5 wins

6 wins

7 wins

21%

8 wins

31%

9 wins

24%

10 wins

10%

11 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Memphis has a 23% shot at the American Athletic title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Memphis’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: American Athletic projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.