Memphis Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Memphis to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.3 expected wins. Up 0.6 wins from the preseason projection. Memphis makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Memphis a 9% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 7 of 7 Memphis games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Memphis earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Memphis. Played games show the result.
- Week 1
at UNLVWon42-24 - Week 1Sat Sep 5Won42-24
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Boise StateLost20-38 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs UT MartinWon45-21 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at CharlotteWon59-8 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs UABWon38-13 - Week 7Fri Oct 16
at TulaneLost17-31 - Week 8Thu Oct 22Won41-34
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Army65% chance Memphis wins - Week 11Thu Nov 1239% chance Memphis wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Navy50% chance Memphis wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
vs Temple79% chance Memphis wins
How many games Memphis wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (38% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.7 in the preseason to 8.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.