Temple vs Penn State Prediction: Will Penn State Cover -23.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Penn State -30.76 for Penn State at Temple, 7.3 points off the market’s Penn State -23.5, and gives Penn State a 99% win probability.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Penn State than the market. It projects a decisive victory by a wider margin and assigns a near-certain win probability that exceeds what the market's line reflects. The two reads agree on the winner but diverge on the size of Penn State's advantage.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Temple vs Penn State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Penn State to win, with a 99% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Penn State at Temple?
The model projects Penn State -30.76 and the market has Penn State -23.5, a gap of 7.3 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Penn State -23.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Penn State at Temple one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Penn State and Temple.
Published Sep 10, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 11, 2026.