Temple Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Temple to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 4.1 expected wins. Down 1.5 wins from the preseason projection. Temple makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Temple a <1% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Temple games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
Temple earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Temple. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Rhode IslandWon38-14 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Penn StateLost9-27 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at ToledoLost48-49 - Week 4Fri Sep 25
vs ArmyLost17-21 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won17-13
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs UConnLost20-34 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs CharlotteLost31-38 - Week 9Sat Oct 3142% chance Temple wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Navy32% chance Temple wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs UAB55% chance Temple wins - Week 12Thu Nov 19
vs Rice61% chance Temple wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Memphis21% chance Temple wins
How many games Temple wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.6 in the preseason to 4.1 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.