Ole Miss vs LSU Prediction: Will LSU Cover -3?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU -18.75 for LSU at Ole Miss, 15.7 points off the market’s LSU -3, and gives LSU a 96% win probability.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
What this tells us
My model is significantly more bullish on LSU than the market. It projects LSU to win by a far wider margin than the market is pricing in, reflecting a much higher confidence level in an LSU victory. The divergence between these two reads of the same game is what my system is built to flag.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Ole Miss vs LSU?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU to win, with a 96% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for LSU at Ole Miss?
The model projects LSU -18.75 and the market has LSU -3, a gap of 15.7 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
LSU -3, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is LSU at Ole Miss one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.